An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

Harmonious Society and Chinese CSR: Is There Really a Link?

In 2005, Chinese President Hu Jintao instituted a “Harmonious Society” policy marking a new China’s approach toward development. This generated intense excitement among observers of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) who perceive an overlap in objectives between CSR and Harmonious Society and believe that Harmonious Society will lead to increased CSR engagement in China. However, there is little exploration of how Harmonious Society will contribute to increasing CSR engagement. This article seeks to explore whether Harmonious Society will meet this promise. It does so by drawing up a list of actions that if taken by the government would increase the level of CSR in China and make Harmonious Society a relevant factor in the development of Chinese CSR. To do so, my article studies comparative literature on CSR development to develop a framework that divides causes of CSR in a country into environmental constraints and discretionary responses. Understanding what drives the development of CSR allows us to understand what measures the Chinese government can take to influence the level of CSR. Using this framework, my article suggests that Harmonious Society is unlikely to promote CSR in China’s growing private sector because policy measures that affect the “constraints” driving CSR are bounded by other political considerations.     

Difference of opinion and the cross-section of equity returns: Australian evidence

This paper examines the relationship between difference of opinion among investors and the return on Australian equities. The paper is the first to employ dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts, abnormal turnover and idiosyncratic volatility as proxies for difference of opinion. We document a negative relationship between difference of opinion and stock returns when dispersion in analysts' forecasts and idiosyncratic volatility are employed as proxies. This result provides support for Miller's (1977) model and is consistent with the findings of Diether et al. (2002). In contrast, we find mixed results when using abnormal turnover to proxy difference of opinion.     

Tourists' intention to visit heritage hotels at George Town World Heritage Site

George Town, Penang, has always been one of the most popular destinations among Malaysian and international tourists. In 2008, George Town was accorded a listing as a UNESCO World Heritage Site (WHS). With the listing, increasing tourist arrivals and intentions to visit heritage hotels have been very promising in recent years, prompting the emergence of the adaptive reuse of heritage buildings into heritage hotels. In line with this development, this study examines the effects of perceived price, experience quality, prior knowledge, perceived authenticity, and social influence on tourists’ intention to visit heritage hotels at the George Town WHS, Penang, with perceived value as a mediator. The findings indicate that perceived price, experience quality, prior knowledge, perceived authenticity, social influence and perceived value exert positive and significant effects on tourists’ intention to visit heritage hotels. The study also determines the mediating effect of perceived value on the relationships between independent variables and the intention to visit heritage hotels. This study provides an in-depth understanding of the attributes that affect tourists’ intention to visit heritage hotels at the George Town WHS and helps the owners and operators of heritage hotels to formulate future strategies in designing and promoting their services.     

中国汽车业产能过剩问题隐现

制造商争相抢占中国汽车市场份额,导致汽车制造产能迅猛增长,今后两年中,产能过剩将是中国汽车产业面对的主要问题     

Basis variations and regime shifts in the oil futures market

The conditional volatility of crude oil futures returns is modelled as a regime switching process. The model features transition probabilities that are functions of the basis. Consistent with the theory of storage, in volatile periods, an increase in backwardation is associated with an increase in the likellihood of switching to or remaining in the high-volatility state. Conditional on regimes, GARCH persistence is significantly reduced. Out-of-sample tests show that incorporating regime shifts improves the accuracy of short-term volatility forecasts.     

Strategic Reorientation and Responses to the Asian Financial Crisis: The Case of the Manufacturing Industry in Singapore

Taking the Asian financial crisis as a base model that triggers decline among manufacturing firms in Singapore, this paper identified two main strategies taken: offensive strategic reorientation and defensive strategic shift. We hypothesized that firms that adopt the offensive strategic reorientation strategy attributed decline to controllable factors, have a higher level of slack, and are bigger in size. On the other hand, firms that adopt defensive strategic shift attributed decline to uncontrollable factors, are under greater severity of decline, have a lower level of slack and are smaller in size. We found significant relationships for the defensive strategic shift strategy.     

Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process

Commodity index futures offer a versatile tool for gaining different forms of exposure to commodity markets. Volatility is a critical input in many of these applications. This paper examines issues in modelling the conditional variance of futures returns based on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI). Given that commodity markets tend to be ‘choppy’ (Webb, 1987 ), a general econometric model is proposed that allows for abrupt changes or regime shifts in volatility, transition probabilities which vary explicitly with observable fundamentals such as the basis, GARCH dynamics, seasonal variations and conditional leptokurtosis. The model is applied to daily futures returns on the GSCI over 1992–1997. The results show clear evidence of regime shifts in conditional mean and volatility. Once regime shifts are accounted for, GARCH effects are minimal. Consistent with the theory of storage, returns are more likely to switch to the high‐variance state when the basis is negative than when the basis is positive. The regime switching model also performs well in forecasting the daily volatility compared to standard GARCH models without regime switches. The model should be of interest to sophisticated traders who base their trading strategies on short‐term volatility movements, managed commodity funds interested in hedging an underlying diversified portfolio of commodities and investors of options and other derivatives tied to GSCI futures contracts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Addressing Risks in Green Retrofit Projects: The Case of Singapore

The objectives of this study are to identify the risks in green retrofit projects in Singapore; analyze their risk criticalities; compare the risk criticalities between conventional and green retrofit projects; and provide mitigation measures for the critical risks. Twenty risks and 37 mitigation measures were identified from a literature review. A questionnaire survey was performed with 30 professionals experienced in green retrofits, and five post‐survey interviews were conducted. The results indicated “post‐retrofit tenants’ cooperation risk” was the top risk, and that 19 risks were more critical in green retrofits than in conventional retrofits. Additionally, 28 mitigation measures obtained significant agreement.