ARE LONG‐TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WELL‐ANCHORED? EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper analyses the stability of long‐term inflation expectations and uncertainty, based on their sensitivity to innovations to observed inflation, short‐ and medium‐term forecast news. News is defined in a subjective sense and derived from revisions to shorter‐term fixed‐target forecasts. The assessment tests for presence of non‐linear effects, including regime changes during disinflation in the USA in the 1990s and the recent financial crisis. Stability is also investigated in terms of level evolution, based on a structural non‐linear and non‐Gaussian learning model to uncover the presence of a common trend underlying the long‐term dynamics of inflation, individual expectations, and uncertainty.     

International monetary transmission with bank heterogeneity and default risk

This paper compares the effectiveness, efficiency and robustness of standard and non-standard monetary policy tools, such as the banks’ refinancing interest rate, penalty interest rate on deposit facility holdings and minimum reserve requirements on attracted deposits. The assessment is performed on the basis of a numerically evaluated open economy general equilibrium model for macro-prudential analysis where optimal decisions by internationally linked banks are key determinants of international financial flows and wider economic outcomes. Banks differ in terms of balance sheet endowments and risk preferences and take decisions rationally and competitively. Default risk, borrowing and lending are endogenous results of individual decisions of private agents (banks and households), as well as systemic outcomes of market interaction.