Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.

The Dynamics of Household Wealth Accumulation in Italy

We examine the dynamics of wealth accumulation distribution in Italy using data drawn from the Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a representative survey of the Italian population conducted by the Bank of Italy. We compare survey data with National Accounts data and discuss sample representativeness, attrition and measurement issues. We then look at wealth inequality (the cross‐sectional dispersion of wealth) and wealth mobility (individual transitions across the wealth distribution) and examine the age profile of wealth using repeated cross‐sectional data. Finally, we consider various explanations for the pattern of wealth accumulation in Italy, focusing on retirement, bequests, income risk, health shocks and credit market imperfections.     

THE AGE-WEALTH PROFILE AND THE LIFE-CYCLE HYPOTHESIS: A COHORT ANALYSIS WITH A TIME SERIES OF CROSS-SECTIONS OF ITALIAN HOUSEHOLDS

In this paper I estimate the age-wealth profile under two different identification assumptions about age, cohort and time effects. According to the life-cycle model, the two sets of assumptions should yield similar age-wealth profiles. Using the 1984–93 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth, the estimated average annual rate of wealth decumulation in old age is found to be between 3 and 6 percent. As in the life-cycle model, the cohort effect increases with year of birth. However, the results also uncover considerable population heterogeneity: the rates of wealth decumulation are much lower for rich households and households headed by individuals with higher education.     

Performance evaluation of production systems monitored by statistical process control and off-line inspections

Quality and productivity performance measures are very often considered in separate phases of the production system design process. However, the production system architecture affects the efficiency of the quality control system as well as the quality control configuration has an impact on the performance of the production system.The paper proposes a new analytical method for evaluating the performance of production systems in which statistical process control (SPC) techniques are implemented. Machines behaviour is monitored by measuring quality characteristics of the produced parts through off-line inspection devices and sampling inspections. The numerical results show the good accuracy of the proposed method, provide new insight in the relations among the two areas and pave the way to the joint design of production logistics and quality control systems.     

Granger causality detection in high-dimensional systems using feedforward neural networks

This paper proposes a novel methodology to detect Granger causality on average in vector autoregressive settings using feedforward neural networks. The approach accommodates unknown dependence structures between elements of high-dimensional multivariate time series with weak and strong persistence. To do this, we propose a two-stage procedure: first, we maximize the transfer of information between input and output variables in the network in order to obtain an optimal number of nodes in the intermediate hidden layers. Second, we apply a novel sparse double group lasso penalty function in order to identify the variables that have the predictive ability and, hence, indicate that Granger causality is present in the others. The penalty function inducing sparsity is applied to the weights that characterize the nodes of the neural network. We show the correct identification of these weights so as to increase sample sizes. We apply this method to the recently created Tobalaba network of renewable energy companies and show the increase in connectivity between companies after the creation of the network using Granger causality measures to map the connections.     

The welfare effects of liquidity constraints

We analyze the welfare implications of liquidity constraintsfor households in an overlapping generations model with growth.In a closed economy with exogenous technical progress, liquidityconstraints reduce welfare if the economy is dynamically inefficient.But if it is dynamically efficient, some degree of financialrepression is required to maximize steady-state utility, eventhough some generations are hurt in the transition. With endogenoustechnical progress, financial repression may increase welfareeven along the transition path, thus leading to a Pareto improvement.In this case the optimal degree of financial repression increasesas the economy grows.     

Currency substitution and the stability of the Italian demand for money before the entry into the monetary union, 1972–1998

A money demand function for M2 is estimated for Italy for the period 1972–1998 within an error correction framework. This period has been characterized by major structural changes in the Italian financial system and by major changes in monetary policy. This study takes these changes into account. Moreover, currency substitution, especially between Italy and Germany is incorporated into the model. By accounting for structural breaks and currency substitution a stable money demand function can be found.Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 373, is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Uwe Hassler, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt, and Carsten Trenkler, SFB 373, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, for helpful comments. An earlier version has been presented at the ESEM 2001, Lausanne.     

An empirical note on relative monetary expansion and depreciation: The case of the Lira-Swiss franc exchange rate (February 1973–December 1976)

This note presents an empirical test of fluctuations in the spread between the lira Swiss franc exchange rate for bank notes and cable transfers in Zurich. This spread is trendless, and since the market for Italian bank notes in Zurich is relatively small, it is virtually free from reverse causation in relation to relative monetary expansion. The tests show that relative monetary expansion is the main determinant of fluctuations in the spread.