Firm Size, Industry Mix and the Regional Transmission of Monetary Policy in Germany

Abstract. This paper estimates the impact of interest rate shocks on regional output in Germany over the period from 1970 to 2000. We use a vector autoregression (VAR) model to obtain impulse responses, which reveal differences in the output responses to monetary policy shocks across ten German provinces. Next, we investigate whether these differences can be related to structural features of the regional economies, such as industry mix, firm size, bank size and openness. An additional analysis of the volatility of real GDP growth for the period 1992–2000 includes the Eastern provinces. We also present evidence on the interrelationship between firm size and industry, and compare our measure of firm size with those used in previous studies. We conclude that the differential regional effects of monetary policy are related to industrial composition, but not to firm size or bank size.     

Estimation of demand systems using both time series and cross section data

Summary This article deals with three models of complete systems of demand equations (Rotterdam model, AIDS and CBS model). After the models and the theoretical restrictions have been described the parameters are estimated subject to an increasing number of restrictions and using aggregate time series for the Netherlands on five commodity groups. As the initial results are not altogether satisfactory an attempt is made to improve the estimates by combining the time-series information with cross section data from the Dutch 1974/1975 budget survey. While the revised estimates of the income elasticities are more plausible than the initial ones, the reverse is true for the estimated price elasticities. This paper originated when I was a student of economics at the University of Amsterdam. I am greatly indebted to J.G. Odink who never failed to support and inspire me while I worked on this paper. Also I thank J.S. Cramer, D.A. Kodde and J. van Driel for their comments on an earlier draft, and G. Ridder for his econometric advice. Finally the comments of two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Of course all remaining errors and omissions are my own.     

Optimal economic growth and non-stable population

Summary This paper analyses optimal economic growth when the (exogenous) rate of population growth changes. The optimal growth path is characterized by a strikingly straightforward generalization of the traditional steady-state Golden Rule of Accumulation. The comparative statics results allow for a generalization of Samuelson's (1975) analysis of the lower-bound for the optimal rate of population growth. It is shown that under plausible assumptions the optimal savings rate follows an inverted U-shaped or U-shaped pattern during periods of demographic transition, according to whether the growth rate of births is falling or rising.     

From small to large: A systematic comparison of gradually more complex econometric models

This paper treats the problem of validating macroeconometric models. A set of nine models are estimated on the same data base and subjected to the same simulation tests. They range from the simple IS model to a relatively realistic model of the Swedish economy in the postwar period. The main conclusion is that minor specification changes may drastically alter the dynamic characteristics of models, despite the fact that the models are theoretically plausible. A second purpose of the paper is to try to bridge the gap between the simple IS or IS-LM models used in the classroom and the much larger and more complex models that are actually used.     

Carry

We apply the concept of carry, which has been studied almost exclusively in currency markets, to any asset. A security’s expected return is decomposed into its “carry,” an ex-ante and model-free characteristic, and its expected price appreciation. Carry predicts returns cross-sectionally and in time series for a host of different asset classes, including global equities, global bonds, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and options. Carry is not explained by known predictors of returns from these asset classes, and it captures many of these predictors, providing a unifying framework for return predictability. We reject a generalized version of Uncovered Interest Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis in favor of models with varying risk premia, in which carry strategies are commonly exposed to global recession, liquidity, and volatility risks, though none fully explains carry’s premium.     

Extending the service-dominant logic: from customer centricity to balanced centricity

This is a contribution to the reorientation of marketing. It aligns the service-dominant logic with other developments in marketing and management. It claims that the marketing concept and customer-centricity are too limited as a foundation for marketing and have not—and cannot—but partially be implemented in practice. It urges marketing scholars and educators to accept the complexity of marketing and develop and teach a network-based stakeholder approach—balanced centricity—epitomized by the concept of many-to-many marketing.