Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

谈谈情，跳跳舞

上半身保持不动．据说这样体现了西班牙人的高贵．腰胯部的扭动则来源于热情奔放的非洲。而腿脚的动作印证着印第安人的文化。     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

追随客户与外资银行进入：中国的证据与政策含义

借鉴国外同行的分析方法,对追随客户假说在中国的适用性的检验表明：出口、进出口总量和外商直接投资对外资银行的进入存在正向影响,而进口的影响则为负.从政策层面上看,外资银行进入原因的复杂性蕴含着诸多机遇与挑战,而核心则是协调对外贸易政策、外商直接投资政策和金融管制等多种政策工具与手段.     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

政府上网不仅是新的技术工具的获得和经营模式的改变,更重要的是政府要用信息技术向社会提供更有效的服务.税收信息化即是电子技术在税收工作中的具体应用.     

电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.     

论企业所得税收入的确认

我国现行企业所得税法对收入的界定要价概念不清,缺乏对收入的一般确认原则。在下一步企业所得税立法中,应区分收入总额、非应税收入、免税收入和应税收入,并明确商品销售收入、提供劳务收入、让渡资产使用权收入、转让财产收入、股息红利收入、租金收入、接受捐赠收入、其他收入的确认原则。     

注册会计师诚信征信系统的框架设计

诚信是注册会计师行业的生存基础。但近年来,国内外一系列财务报告舞弊案使注册会计师行业面临着前所未有的“诚信危机”。理论界、实务界和监管层为此提出各种改进措施,如果将诚信档案建立在现代信息技术基础上并将其功能系统化,就可构建出注册会计师诚信征信系统,使注册会计师的诚信状况处于实时动态监控之中。征信系统是收集个人或企业的信用和其他信息,经过整理与分析之后,以信用报告、查询结果等形式提供给有关各方,以控制授信人风险和惩戒失信行为的一种信息系统,同时也是一种敦促个人和企业诚实守信的社会经济机制。注册会计师诚信征…     

约翰·拉格里奇:活跃于环球的投资家与学者(二)--投资学掀开生活的红盖头

投资!当人们手里握着余钱的时候，多数会口里喊着或心里念着：投资!——特别是在这个时代的中国，财富神话每时每刻都在上演，渴望在市场上逮住机会的人们，对于投资，是如此的热衷!但是“真理”掌握在少数人手里。这个“真理”，就是投资之道；那些近年赚得盆满钵盈的机构投资和管理们，他们运作大资金的智慧，往往能为我们的“投资”之道点燃一把火。[编按]