Global and Country‐Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

We identify global and country‐specific measures of output growth uncertainty for a large OECD country sample by means of a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. We find evidence for major bouts of global uncertainty in the early 1970s and late 2000s, and a number of periods with elevated levels of either global or national uncertainty, particularly in the early 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. VAR impulse responses of national macroeconomic variables to our estimated measures of uncertainty reveal that global uncertainty is the major driver of macroeconomic performance in most countries, whereas the impact of national uncertainty is small and frequently insignificant. We also find that uncertainty is transmitted primarily through investment and trade flows rather than through consumption demand.     

The German bank–growth nexus revisited: savings banks and economic growth in Prussia†

This article provides evidence that smaller, regional public financial intermediaries contributed to Germany's industrial development, using a new dataset of the foundation year and location of Prussian savings banks. This extends the bank–growth nexus beyond its traditional focus on large universal banks. Since savings banks were public financial intermediaries, our results further suggest that state intervention can be successful in the financial sector, particularly at the early stages of industrial development when capital requirements are manageable, and access to international capital markets is limited.     

A technoeconomic model for sectoral and economy-wide development planning

A combined multisector model of economy-wide development planning and a process-wide planning of a major sector of the economy are considered. Static and dynamic versions of the model are derived, and various controlling mechanisms, objective functions and model refinements are presented. Application of the methodology to the development planning of the energy sector in Israel is also discussed.     

Taking firms to the stock market: IPOs and the importance of large banks in imperial Germany, 1896–1913

Large universal banks played a major role in Germany's industrialization because they provided loans to industry and thereby helped firms to overcome liquidity constraints. Previous research has also argued that they were equally important for the German stock market. This article provides quantitative and qualitative evidence that although the market for underwriters was dominated by a small oligopoly of six large banks, there was still perceptible competition, which kept fees and short‐run profits low. Another interesting finding presented here is the absence of a signalling effect to investors. Neither underpricing nor the one‐year performance was different for the IPOs issued by one of the Big Six. Thus, although the German IPO business was in the hands of a small oligopoly, investors did not benefit from the lack of competition. One explanation is that the quality of IPOs on the German stock market of the time was very good in general as a result of the competition between underwriters, but also as a result of the tight regulation of underwriting, which ensured the quality of all firms on the German stock market.     

Zur Informationsqualität von Zeitungsberichten über Meinungsumfragen: eine exemplarische Studie zur medialen Konstruktion von Realität

Polls are a frequent item in mass media reporting. However, the quality of the information conveyed in these reports is often a crucial issue. So far, studies of the quality of poll reporting were based mostly on the analysis of disclosure standards established by the polling industry. The focus of the present study reaches beyond these standards and includes additional criteria concerning the accuracy, transparency and balance or bias in poll reporting. Using analytic tools from both media linguistics and survey methodology, we will discuss the reporting in a single exemplary case. We demonstrate that merely following the usual disclosure standards as such does not guarantee reporting that is adequate in terms of quality. Once we take into account the entire media performance, the questions asked, the validity of the data, the intertextual processes of adaptation typical of the media (e.g. substitution, shortening, dramatization, personalization, etc.), as well as the ensuing interpretations, we show the ways news can be demoscopically constructed in poll coverage, and how they can be affected by the journalistic processes of selection and representation.     

Zur korrekten Erfassung der staatlichen Verschuldung

Die Haushaltsdefizite und die Staatsverschuldung haben in Deutschland ein hohes Niveau erreicht. Wird aber die staatliche Verschuldung überhaupt korrekt erfasst und bildet die Kameralistik die tatsächlichen Belastungen richtig ab? Lässt sich mit Hilfe der doppelten Buchführung mehr Klarheit gewinnen?     

The value of active politicians on supervisory boards: evidence from the Berlin stock exchange and the parliament in interwar Germany

We provide the first overview over all political connections of firms via current Members of Parliament on supervisory boards and board of directors listed on the Berlin stock exchange in the 1920s. In contrast to anecdotal evidence, which suggest that political connections were expected to have a positive effect on firms’ performance, an event study based on the election in December 1924 and May 1928 shows only little evidence that a political connection via a newly elected or re-elected politician generated value. These results complement previous research emphasising that political connections might have mattered less in democracies.