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Control groups can provide counterfactual evidence for assessing the impact of an event or policy change on a target variable. We argue that fitting a multivariate time series model offers potential gains over a direct comparison between the target and a weighted average of controls. More importantly, it highlights the assumptions underlying methods such as difference in differences and synthetic control, suggesting ways to test these assumptions. Gains from simple and transparent time series models are analysed using examples from the literature, including the California smoking law of 1989 and German reunification. We argue that selecting controls using a time series strategy is preferable to existing data‐driven regression methods. 相似文献
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Housing Transactions and the Changing Decisions of Young Households in Britain: The Microeconomic Evidence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this second of two related papers in this issue, the causes of declining levels of housing transactions in Britain during the 1990s are explored. The lower transaction levels resulted partly from the changing behavior of young individuals. Both household formation and owner–occupation rates of these groups also fell sharply. Using panel data, we investigate the causes of reduced new household formation and owner–occupation, finding that changes in the income distribution away from young cohorts have been an important factor. 相似文献
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Mark Andrew 《Scottish journal of political economy》2004,51(1):24-48
This paper attempts to explain why home ownership rates among young adults fell in the early 1990s when various indicators suggested it had become more affordable. As a potential explanation, we focus on the relatively slower growth in their incomes and argue that this could signal a fundamental change in behaviour, a change in route adopted into owner occupation, induced by structural economic change. In examining the implications for housing tenure, we use a conditional fixed effects multinomial logit model to exploit the information on the tenure choice and the timing of transitions in the British Household Panel Survey. Our results reveal that relatively slower income growth contributed significantly to this decline and that ignoring the intertemporal correlation in micro‐panels generates inconsistent results. 相似文献
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Andrew Mwaba 《Revue africaine de developpement》2005,17(3):536-551
Abstract: The pronouncement by the G‐8 Summit at Gleneagles in July 2005 on debt cancellation under the HIPC Initiative, affirmed by the G‐8 Ministers of Finance in Washington in September, should signal the beginning of debt relief for the world's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), mostly African. It is expected that debt cancellation should return the beneficiary countries to debt sustainability and afford their governments the fiscal space to invest in basic infrastructure and social services. Countries could significantly enhance their prospects for maintaining debt sustainability mainly by adopting debt management strategies that de‐emphasize excessive borrowing, checking the expansion of unproductive public sector activities and the associated fiscal deficits, financial restructuring to reduce the bias against autonomous capital flows, and taking deliberate actions to expand exports. 相似文献
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K.E. Hughes II & J. Kenneth Reynolds 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2001,28(9&10):1351-1386
This study examines whether the uncertainty arising from a firm's exposure to future environmental costs (environmental uncertainty) affects the market's price sensitivity to reported earnings. Specifically, when environmental uncertainty is significantly high, are investors more responsive to reported earnings released by 'high-polluting' firms than reported earnings announced by 'low-polluting' firms within the same industry? The initial impact of Title IV (the acid rain provisions) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (1990 CAAA) on the US electric utility industry provides the research setting required to isolate the effects of environmental uncertainty while addressing this question. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) of high-polluting electric utilities are significantly greater than those of their low-polluting counterparts during a predicted period of elevated environmental uncertainty. In adjoining sample years associated with lower environmental uncertainty, we observe no statistical difference in the magnitude of the ERCs between these two groups. In addition, the study's findings suggest that the magnitude of the ERC is increasing in the firm's exposure to future environmental costs, after controlling for other factors that potentially affect ERCs. 相似文献