Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instrument persistence

Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, pp. 583–606) estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for selected economic forecasts of 12 EU Member States. They employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure proposed by Elliott et al. (2005, Review of Economic Studies 72, pp. 1107–1125) and find the forecasts to be somewhat optimistic on average. However, this note shows the GMM estimator to possess nonstandard limiting distributions when some of the instruments are highly persistent, which is the case with one of the instruments employed by Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis. Standard distributions are recovered in some interesting particular cases which are relevant in practice. A reexamination of the EU Commission loss preferences using methods robust to persistence and a dataset extended to 2017 reveals that, while the conclusions of the original study are, by and large, still justified, the EU Commission loss preferences have become more symmetric over the whole studied period.     

Luxury products for the circular economy? A case study of Bang & Olufsen

This paper examines whether luxury products can support a circular economy. This is done through a literature review of luxury products and the links to circular economy, as well as a case study of Bang & Olufsen (B&O). The literature review revealed links between some of the core characteristics of luxury products and the circular economy. This included aspects such as the high quality, durability, service schemes, extended warranties, and large aftermarkets. The case study supports the links between the inner circles in the circular economy (maintenance, repair, and reuse) and some of the core characteristics of luxury products. B&O produces products with a long lifespan, has extended warranties, repair and service schemes, spare part availability for 8 years, an aftermarket, and leasing schemes. B&O also does reconditioning of components for its repair loop, conducts dismantling tests, marks plastic parts, and has a negative list that excludes certain hazardous components.     

A market-consistent framework for the fair evaluation of insurance contracts under Solvency II

Decisions in Economics and Finance - The entry into force of the Solvency II regulatory regime is pushing insurance companies in engaging into market consistence evaluation of their balance sheet,...     

Revisiting the expatriate failure concept: A qualitative study of Scandinavian expatriates in Hong Kong

This article advances the understanding of expatriate failure, which remains a contested social phenomenon in international work life as well as scholarly research. The study challenges the definition of expatriate failure and its inherent biases, i.e., the epistemological primacy of the firm level and the failure/success binary. We argue that this qualitative study of 51 Scandinavian expatriates in Hong Kong can contribute to advancing theory on the expatriate failure concept by asking individual expatriates what constitutes failure to them. By applying social constructionist and social anthropological ideas to the expatriate failure concept debate, we develop the internationality thesis which demonstrates a discrepancy between the expatriates’ perceptions of successful international assignments and the actual nature of their lived lives; many expatriates desire to enrich their lives through experiencing an international/intercultural and adventurous lifestyle, but, in fact, living lives with limited intercultural exposure and interaction. We conclude by proposing a reconceptualisation of expatriate failure in terms of offering both a new definition and approach to researching expatriate failure in which time/duration, context, and geographical location need to be taken into account. We believe the new approach can overcome some of the empirical unsoundness of mainstream definitions.     

Hispanic Ethnicity,English‐Skill Investments,and Earnings

Analyzing synthetic cohorts in the 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples, we find that Mexican‐Americans and other Hispanics acquired English fluency at a faster pace than Puerto Ricans and Cuban‐Americans during the 1980s. Additional results indicate that English‐skill investments differently influenced the earnings distributions of these ethnic groups.     

EFFECT OF FED POLICY ACTIONS ON THE DEFAULT LIKELIHOOD OF COMMERCIAL BANKS

Using a measure of default likelihood based on an option pricing method, we provide evidence that Fed policy actions affect the financial distress of commercial banks. When the Fed increases (decreases) interest rates, the measure of default likelihood increases (decreases). We show that when the Fed uses a tight money policy, the increase in default likelihood is more pronounced for banks that have less capital, have greater financial leverage, are smaller, have fewer growth opportunities, and have lower asset quality. Additionally, the effects on bank default likelihood are more pronounced when the Fed's policy signals less concern about economic growth, as indicated by its bias toward further tightening, and when there is a market expectation of higher short‐term market rates in the future.     

INTRA-INDUSTRY EFFECTS OF BOND RATING ADJUSTMENTS

Several studies find that bond rating downgrades cause negative valuation effects. Other studies find that signals conveyed by earnings releases, earnings forecasts, bankruptcies, and stock offerings of individual firms can be transmitted to their corresponding industries. By combining the two sets of studies, we hypothesize that bond rating changes may contain relevant information not only about the firm, but also about the corresponding industry. We find significantly negative valuation effects for rating downgrades, which are transmitted throughout the industry. Furthermore, we find that intra-industry effects depend on particular characteristics of the bond downgrade, the downgraded firm, and industry rivals. Specifically, the negative intra-industry effects are more pronounced when (1) the downgraded firm experiences a more severe share price response to the bond rating downgrade, (2) the downgraded firm is dominant in the industry, (3) the downgraded firm is more closely related to its rivals in the industry, and (4) the downgrade is due to a deterioration in the firm's financial prospects.