A Geometrical Interpretation of Collinearity: A Natural Way to Justify Ridge Regression and Its Anomalies

Justifying ridge regression from a geometrical perspective is one of the main contributions of this paper. To the best of our knowledge, this question has not been treated previously. This paper shows that ridge regression is a particular case of raising procedures that provide greater flexibility by transforming the matrix X associated with the model. Thus, raising procedures, based on a geometrical idea of the vectorial space associated with the columns of matrix X , lead naturally to ridge regression and justify the presence of the well-known constant k on the main diagonal of matrix X ^′ X . This paper also analyses and compares different alternatives to raising with respect to collinearity mitigation. The results are illustrated with an empirical application.     

Military conquest and sovereign debt: Chile,Peru and the London bond market, 1876–1890

As a result of the War of the Pacific (1879–1883), Chile conquered Peruvian and Bolivian territories rich in nitrates and guano. We conduct econometric tests for structural breaks in the time series of the government bonds for Chile and Peru between 1876 and 1890 in order to examine the effects of the changes in resource endowments on the investors’ perceptions of the risk premia of Chilean and Peruvian securities. Our results reveal that investors were extremely pessimistic about the prospects of Chilean, and especially Peruvian debt prior to the war. Early Chilean victories that anticipated the transfer of the richly endowed provinces to Chile caused significant increases in the price of Chilean securities. But such was the low regard with which investors viewed the Peruvian government that the fall of Lima caused an increase in the price of Peruvian bonds on the hope that Chile would assume some of the responsibility for them. Endowments, reputations, and the countries’ financial conditions figure prominently as the driving forces behind the investors’ behavior.     

Precautionary Saving by Young Immigrants and Young Natives

This paper uses data from the 1979 Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79) to explore the wealth accumulation patterns of younger cohorts as well as immigrants' and natives' precautionary saving in response to income uncertainty. We use two measures of wealth and construct a time-varying, conditional measure of income uncertainty, instead of relying on a constant, unconditional, summary measure of income uncertainty. We use a buffer-stock model of savings, and find that immigrants accumulate less wealth than do natives. Additionally, young natives' wealth accumulation patterns appear more responsive than those of their immigrant counterparts to income uncertainty.     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES

The hypothesis that foreign direct investment into the United States responds to variations in exchange-rate levels and to exchange-rate uncertainty is tested for the period 1976-1998. We account for nonstationarity and cointegration in the data series and use conditional measures of exchange-rate uncertainty. While a long-run relationship exists among foreign direct investment in-flows as a share of GNP, the real exchange rate, and the GARCH measure of exchange-rate volatility, we find no discernible link between the real exchange rate and inward foreign direct investment in the short run. We also conclude that foreign direct investment decreases in response to increases in exchange-rate uncertainty in the short run when we use a conditional measure of exchange-rate uncertainty.     

Unemployment and labour force participation in Spain

This article examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and the labour force participation rate in Spain. Cointegration analysis is performed for aggregate, male and female time-series. Results suggest that there is no a long-run relationship between the two variables for the aggregate and male cases. However, the findings support a long-run relationship between the two variables for the female time-series. Thus, the unemployment invariance hypothesis is supported in the two former cases but not in the latter.     

Remittances to Latin America from migrants in the United States: Assessing the impact of amnesty programs

The magnitude of remittance flows to Latin America exceeds the combined inflows of foreign direct investment and official development assistance to the region. Since the United States is the destination country of the vast majority of migrants from Mexico, as well as from other Latin American countries, U.S. immigration policy can have a significant impact on the volume of remittances to the Latin American region. This paper studies how a generalized amnesty — a provision in the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) — affected immigrants' remitting patterns. In models that control for immigrants' length of residence in the United States and for economic conditions in both the U.S. state of residence and the country of origin, we estimate substantial post-legalization drops in remittances sent home by Mexican-born migrants who legalized through IRCA. Given the potential positive impact of remittances on investment levels, entrepreneurship rates and the development of the financial sector, this finding underscores the importance of gaining a better understanding of the impact that immigration policies in immigrant-receiving countries may have on the stream of remittance flows to immigrant-sending communities in developing regions.     

Home or next door? Patenting by European food and beverage multinationals

We study the location of the inventive activity of 59 major European food and beverage multinationals and their 8432 subsidiaries worldwide, by analysing the geographical distribution of the inventors listed in the European Patent Office (EPO) applications, US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents and triadic, international and Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) patent families of the companies filed between 1978 and the early 2000s. The sampled companies tend to locate their R&D activities in the home country. EU-based companies, more specifically, deploy an intra-regional strategy in EU countries, especially with regard to the inventions most closely related to their core businesses (food), for which, however, they do not display a home-country preference. Inventions related to non-core business tend to be produced in extra-regional locations.     

The Impact of Families on Juvenile Substance Use

This paper examines the effect of family composition on juvenile substance use and drug sales using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. The results underscore the importance of having a father figure in the household in deterring juvenile smoking, marijuana use, and drug sale. However, the extent to which father figures affect juvenile substance use and drug sales varies according to their biological link to the youth and the youth's gender. Results further indicate that siblings and their involvement in substance use and drug sales significantly influence youths' own exposure to these delinquent practices. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.