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1.
Aweng Peter Majok Garang Hatice Erkekoglu 《The South African journal of economics. Suid-afrikaanse tydskrif vir ekonomie》2020,88(4):495-517
Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol. 相似文献
2.
In 2007–2008, when food prices started to increase dramatically, purchasing power parity of consumers, especially the urban poor, started to decrease automatically. High food prices were argued to cause poverty, hunger, and food riots among urban populations. Henceforward, “food crisis” became a new storyline in the current debate. In contrast, in the pre-2007 period, when rural farmers had been facing negative welfare effects of low food prices for many years, there were no crisis talks. This article analyzes different media coverage of urban consumers and rural producers under changes in relative incomes for the 2000–2013 period and propounds media bias on the food crisis debate by using content analysis and the OLS regression model. 相似文献
3.
Hatice Imamoglu 《Economic Systems》2021,45(2):100768
This paper attempts to investigate the relationships between development in the financial sector and the size of the underground economy in European Union countries. Our aim is to investigate the role of financial sector development when it comes to the size of the underground economy, as well as how financial development aids in meeting the growth objectives of the ‘Europe 2020 Strategy’. Panel data analysis will be conducted for the period 2004–2017 in order to examine the effects of financial sector development on the size of the underground economy. The main findings of this paper suggest that financial development has a significantly reducing effect on the size of the underground economy. In conclusion, development within the financial sector significantly lessens underground economic activity in the European Union. With further development of the financial sector, underground economies will not be an obstacle for the fulfilment of the cohesion and growth objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. 相似文献
4.
Avni Önder Hanedar Hatice Gaye Gencer Sercan Demiralay İsmail Altay 《The Scandinavian economic history review / [the Scandanavian Society for Economic and Social History and Historical Geography]》2019,67(2):154-170
The participation of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War caused economic disruptions, huge budget deficits, surmounted inflation rates and excessive depreciation of Lira, the Ottoman currency. Based on the value of Lira against the currencies of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden that were not in the war, we focus on the effects of news about the war on the foreign exchange rates at the ?stanbul bourse from 1918 to 1919. Our results signify some dates, which match the announcements of the armistices and peace meetings, heralding continuous depreciation of Lira. Thus, the findings support the presence of an expectation on the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire with the peace, marked by the escalation of the loss in trust for the Lira and the power of the state in foreign exchange interventions. 相似文献
5.
In this study, we assess empirically whether consumer confidence indices contain information about future private consumption growth in Turkey. To this end, we estimate models for quarterly total, durable, and nondurable consumption growth with and without sentiment indicators. We evaluate in-sample forecasts and one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. We also test permanent income and precautionary savings hypotheses with our results. We use overall indices of CNBC-e and Turkstat-CBRT Surveys, and Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) and Propensity to Consume Index (PCI) from the CNBC-e Survey as sentiment measures. We show that the lagged values of consumer sentiment have explanatory power on consumption growth. However, when used in conjunction with other economic variables such as real labor income, real stock price, real interest rate, and exchange rate, only CNBC-e for total consumption, and CBRT and PCI for nondurable consumption provide independent information about future consumption growth. Similarly, the gains in out-of-sample forecasts are observed under the absence of other variables and disappear in almost all cases following their inclusion to the estimations. Finally, we find no clear evidence for either precautionary savings motive or permanent income hypothesis on the link between consumer sentiment and future total consumption changes. 相似文献
6.
Aweng Peter Majok Garang Hatice Erkekoglu 《The South African journal of economics. Suid-afrikaanse tydskrif vir ekonomie》2021,89(2):218-245
This paper investigates the formation of convergence clubs and examines the drivers of growth convergence in Africa by accounting for individual heterogenous effects and establishing transitional paths. We particularly employ the sophisticated log t test to identify underlying convergence clubs and use LSDVC as a benchmark model for analysing the drivers of convergence. We also apply the System Generalized method of moments (GMM) model for sensitivity purposes. Our results reveal four core convergence clubs; seemingly characterised by the measures of institutional stability with distinct transitional paths. We consequently highlight the importance of initial conditions, human capital and institutions in the formation of convergence clubs. Thus, the paper provides insights into the adoption of differentiated development policies consistent with the specific conditions of African countries with the integration agenda driven by accelerated levels of human capital development and technological progress. 相似文献
7.
Hatice Kerra Geldi 《Economic Modelling》2012,29(5):1566-1570
The paper quantifies the most likely trade effects of the exceptional cases of the GATT/WTO system, namely, Regional Integration Agreements, on the selected member as well as non-member countries of the EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR and AFTA. To this end, the gravity model was estimated through fixed effects model and panel cointegration analysis. It was found that the explanatory power of the latter has superseded the former one. For the case of EU, it was found that the intra-union trade-creation effect is approximately six times larger than extra-union effects. In NAFTA, exports to outside countries are significantly diverted. For MERCOSUR, on the other hand, results indicate that the integration has not contributed to intra-union trade. The members are still significantly dependent on extra-union imports, just like the members of AFTA. 相似文献
8.
In this article, we compute the potential welfare gains and the realized gains from risk-sharing among Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, including the oil-rich Gulf region and the resource-scarce economies. We find that the overall potential welfare gains across MENA countries are positive for all countries under the assumption of full risk-sharing. The potential welfare gains among the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are positive even though the magnitudes are smaller compared to those of the rest of the MENA region. We also quantify the extent of risk-sharing for the MENA region and show that it is significant for the MENA region and its subgroups; however, we could not find any sign of inter-temporal smoothing across the same groups. Decomposing the aggregate output shocks shows that the extent of risk-sharing is significant when only positive output shocks exist across the resource-scarce MENA economies. However, we observe that GCC countries share output risks with each other even under negative output shocks. 相似文献
9.
Measuring deviations from purchasing power parity has been the subject of extensive investigation. The most common practice in empirical research for measuring real exchange rate persistence is to estimate univariate autoregressive (AR) time series models and calculate the half-life, defined as the number of periods for a unit shock to a time series to decay by 50%. In the presence of structural change, there are two potential biases in the parameter estimates of AR models: (1) a downward small sample median-bias and (2) an upward bias, which occurs when structural change is present and ignored. We conduct a variety of Monte Carlo simulations and demonstrate that the existence of structural change causes a substantial increase in the small sample bias documented in Andrews (1993). We then propose an extension of median-unbiased estimation, which explicitly accounts for structural change, and apply these methods to estimate half-lives of several long-horizon real exchange rates analysed by Lothian and Taylor (1996) and Taylor (2002). The upward bias from neglecting structural change dominates the downward median-bias for these real exchange rates. When structural change is present and accounted for, the median-unbiased half-lives towards a changing mean decrease and the confidence intervals tighten. 相似文献
10.
This paper investigates the underlying forces driving income insurance channels for the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) and emerging markets. We find income insurance channels across countries to be driven by different subchannels. For the OECD, income insurance is mostly governed by payments for financial liabilities; for the emerging markets, income flows from nationals working abroad constitute the main income smoother. Despite the growth in cross‐border financial asset trading over the years, we could not find evidence of income smoothing via foreign assets receipts for the OECD. For the majority of emerging markets, neither receipts of foreign assets nor foreign liability payments are strong enough to insure income as well. 相似文献