Pipeline Geopolitics: Subaquatic Materials and the Tactical Point

ABSTRACT

This paper starts from the proposition that studies of geopolitics need to address the political significance of spaces above and below the apparently twodimensional or flat surface of the land and sea. However, we depart from the view that such spaces should be defined by their verticality or conceived as three-dimensional volumes. Instead, the argument stresses the importance of attending to the relations between physical and biological things, and the ways in which the proximity of things is both mediated and supplemented by legal, and scientific and political practice. The empirical focus of the paper is a specific geopolitical puzzle. How did a short section of the route of a transnational gas pipeline, the 3500km Southern Gas Corridor, come to be a site or ‘tactical point’ at which the construction of the pipeline could be disrupted? Our contention is that any analysis of this political question must address not only the contested relations between states, corporations and civil society, but also the potential tension and interference between the horizontal networked geopolitics of pipelines and their subaquatic and subterranean construction. The subaquatic turns out not to be volume but a space of situated encounters between disparate materials.     

The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy

Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995–1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations.     

Estimation Methods and Related Systems at Statistics Canada

This paper provides an overview of research in estimation techniques, their application, and the development of generalized estimation systems at Statistics Canada. In Canada, the demand for more detailed and better quality cross-sectional data related to various sodo-economic issues has increased significantly in recent years. Also, there has been increasing interest in longitudinal data to better understand and interpret the relationships among variables, necessitating the implementation of a number of large scale panel surveys by Statistics Canada. The paper briefly discusses estimation for longitudinal data and a weighting approach developed for cross-sectional data Prom these surveys. For cross-sectional household and business surveys, as well as the census of population, appropriate dibration estimators developed for each situation are briefly discussed. In addition, regression composite estimation, a method developed to improve the quality of cross-sectional estimates from rotating panel surveys such as the Canadian Labour Force Survey, is presented. With regard to more detailed cross-sectional estimates at sub-provincial levels, different approaches to small area estimation developed for various programs are also presented. We SUmmarize the various modules developed lor the GeneraIiized Ektimation System. important new developments within the system include two-phase estimation as well as the estimation of variance for a number of imputation procedures. We briefly review the status of current estimation research on selected topics as well as the direction of future research.