Asymmetric Loss and the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South Korea

We examine asymmetry in the loss functions of South Korean consumers' and the Bank of Korea's (BOK) inflation forecasts, and test the rationality of these forecasts under the assumption of a possible asymmetric loss function. Under an asymmetric loss function, we find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality. We also examine whether the BOK's forecasts incorporate respective forecasts and consensus forecasts efficiently. They broadly use available information efficiently, and their results are robust to inflation‐targeting measures and the recent global financial crisis. However, our results suggest that the information efficiency of the BOK's forecasts for consumers was affected during the period 2007–2008.     

教育驱动的县域城镇化与规划政策反思

县域是完成农民就近城镇化、实现城乡要素跨界配置、促进一二三产融合发展最为基础的空间单元.在一些户籍人口规模大的县域,县城公共服务设施的提标扩面是保障城镇化质量的关键,而教育设施至关重要.通过剖取皖北太和县重点研究,发现该类县城呈现出非常明显的基础教育驱动人口集聚的城镇化景观,现象背后折射出农业转移人口以家庭为单位用时空成本换代际流动的诉求,即该类城镇化的动力机制.农村学生家庭在乡城迁移过程中发生了从"半耕半工"向"半工伴读"的分工模式转变,家庭成员因就近陪读和远距离务工相结合而呈现横跨乡村—本地县城—异地大城市的时空离散.以教育为媒介,上一代在付出巨大时空成本的同时,下一代进行着"城市性"的生活方式、思维模式的社会习得,积累融入社会阶层体系的文化资本,乃至以考学作为通道,实现基于代际之上的城镇化.研究对于具体规划实践中,认识县域城镇化的特征趋势、扩大县城公共服务设施布局中教育资源的供给,提供了更为坚实的实证基础.     

基于Python平台通过单因子指标法进行地下水质量评价

水质评价关系到水质质量,常见的评价方法有层次分析法、综合评价法等,这些方法评价过程非常复杂,单因子评价方法相比具有操作容易.实际中单因子进行评价时存在概念理解难、计算容易出错等问题.为解决单因子计算问题,本文提出采用Python编程语言进行单因子评价.本文详细分析了Python进行单因子评价流程,从数据采集、数据清洗、数据处理、系统实现进行分析.应用结果表明基于Python编程的单因子评价方法具有评价效率高、准确度高优点.     

互联网金融规制与市场有效性改善*——来自中国网络借贷行业的证据

中国的互联网金融经历了一个先创新发展后监管规制的过程，本文通过对网络借贷行业的实证研究，分析监管规则的出台实施对新型互联网融资市场有效性的影响。实证结果表明，网络借贷平台资金的银行存管、持有ICP证等强制性规定缓解了投资者、平台企业与借款人之间的信息不对称，对克服早期平台间通过竞相承诺高回报率来吸引投资者导致的“柠檬市场”问题、对解决网贷市场上缺乏平台风险性高低有效信号的问题都起到了正向作用，有助于互联网融资市场的有效性提高。     

Operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures: a refined closed-form approximation

The quantification of operational risk has become an important issue as a result of the new capital charges required by the Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) to cover the potential losses of this type of risk. In this paper, we investigate second-order approximation of operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures (OpSRMs) within the theory of second-order regular variation (2RV) and second-order subexponentiality. The result shows that asymptotically two cases (the fast convergence case and the slow convergence) arise depending on the range of the second-order parameter. We also show that the second-order approximation under 2RV is asymptotically equivalent to the slow convergence case. A number of Monte Carlo simulations for a range of empirically relevant frequency and severity distributions are employed to illustrate the performance of our second-order results. The simulation results indicate that our second-order approximations tend to reduce the estimation errors to a great degree, especially for the fast convergence case, and are able to capture the sub-extremal behavior of OpSRMs better than the first-order approximation. Our asymptotic results have implications for the regulation of financial institutions, and may provide further insights into the measurement and management of operational risk.     

基于AD9361的掌上型LTE RRU设计与开发

当前小体积远端射频单元（Remote Radio Unit,RRU）主要是皮站级别的Pico-RRU，其重量和体积仍然难以满足掌上型的要求。为此，采用高集成度的AD9361芯片来实现长期演进（Long Term Evolution，LTE）宽带收发信机功能，配合时钟同步模块、放大器模块和控制接口电路等一起构建低成本的掌上型RRU。主要解决了基于AD9516的时钟同步、低相位噪声设计和高灵敏度接收机设计三个技术难点，成功实现了掌上型、高性能、低成本的设计目标。整个RRU样机尺寸为18 cm×10 cm×2 cm，质量约500 g，量产成本千元以内。测试表明，该RRU下行误差向量幅度（Error Vector Magnitude，EVM）小于3%，优于3GPP要求的8%；10 MHz带宽时上行接收机灵敏度优于3GPP要求的-93.5 dBm。     

The Short-Selling Hypothesis of Weekend Effect and T + 1 Trading Mechanism

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets - Utilizing a difference-in-difference regression model, we conduct cross-sectional and time-series analysis to explore effect of short sales on the weekend effect in...     

信贷管制、隐性契约与贷款利率变相市场化——现象与解释

本文将视角聚焦于利率市场化改革之前,重点研究金融抑制对银企信贷契约的异化。研究发现,在金融抑制背景下银企之间存在以留存贷款为表现的隐性契约,用以帮助银行在满足管制要求的同时追求利润最大化。本文对这一现象进行了理论分析与实证检验,发现隐性契约的发生与否会随着货币政策、企业特征等因素的改变而有所差异,这在一定程度上起到了利率变相市场化的作用。进一步研究则发现,这一隐性契约对企业价值产生了负向影响。     

中小企业产权制度变迁中财务治理机制的动态选择

产权作为一切经济制度的基石,对企业的经济行为起约束作用,财务治理作为一项经济管理活动必然受到产权制度的制约。中小企业在其成立和发展过程中应根据其发展的不同时期和阶段的产权特点来动态地选择合理的财务治理机制,以提高企业财务治理的效率。     

生命周期评价方法及其应用

介绍了生命周期评价的目的、意义和基本方法，并运用该方法对燃煤发电、废纸造纸、废旧塑料气化发电等几种不同工业过程的环境影响进行了分析。