贫困治理参与、市场竞争与企业创新——基于上市公司参与精准扶贫视角

市场竞争在企业参与外部社会治理的过程中能够发挥创新激励作用吗?从这个问题出发,文章以中国上市公司参与精准扶贫为研究背景,从宏观治理与微观治理两个层面,政府与市场两个视角,投入与产出两个维度出发,考察参与扶贫对企业创新的影响,使用2016-2019年沪深A股上市公司样本先从投入维度实证验证了企业参与治理会在一定程度产生"创新投入挤占效应",即上市公司参与扶贫治理与其创新投入强度显著负相关.然而,更高市场竞争程度能显著降低"挤占效应",有效发挥创新作为根本动力的激励作用;更进一步的研究表明,区分信贷资源和政商关系的异质性,这种"挤占效应"在信贷资源可得性较差、政商关系水平更低的参与企业中更加显著.机制研究表明,这种"挤占效应"通过政策性负担的增加、管理层业绩压力的降低而显著提升.最后,经济后果分析发现,企业参与贫困治理虽然挤占了其创新投入,却提升了创新产出,企业创新产出的数量与质量都得到了改善,参与治理为企业创新效率的提升带来了益处.本文的研究有利于加深对企业主体创新行为的理解,为理顺政府与市场关系、激发企业创新活力提供了新思考,具有一定的学术意义与实践价值.     

Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference

We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection.     

经济带:新发展阶段的新愿景

经济带已成为承东启西、连南贯北的"经济主骨架",在国民经济整体格局中的战略地位日益凸显,对我国经济发展具有重大战略意义.经济带的形成有其深刻的理论基础和现实条件,我国"两横"——长江经济带和陇海兰新经济带,以及"三纵"——沿海经济带、京广京哈经济带、包昆经济带五条经济带,需要进一步集聚经济要素,破除要素流动壁垒,提升节点城市能级,推动区域经济合作,以经济带建设推动我国经济高质量发展.     

Price dynamics in corn cash and futures markets: cointegration,causality, and forecasting through a rolling window approach

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper examines the causal structure among the daily corn futures and seven cash price series from Midwestern states from January 3, 2006, to March...     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).     

The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.     

社会地位来源对欺骗行为的影响——来自实验室实验的证据

如何减少欺骗是当前中国社会普遍面临的问题。文章结合社会地位理论和自我概念理论，研究了减少欺骗行为的机制。我们利用实验室实验，区分先赋性和自致性两种地位获取方式，用欺骗博弈来检验不同社会地位来源对欺骗决策的影响。结果发现，个人通过真实劳动获得的自致性社会地位可以显著减少欺骗行为；由于幸运得到的先赋性社会地位不能减少欺骗行为。同时，非物质收益的社会地位比赋予物质收益的社会地位更有效减少欺骗行为，说明物质收益是对市场化自我概念的提醒，从而无助于降低欺骗。研究结果在剔除策略性行为后依然稳健。研究有效验证了Mazar et al.（2008）关于影响欺骗行为的自我概念内在决定机制，并对各类组织提升诚信管理具有重要借鉴意义。     

城市高房价如何影响农民工的定居意愿

中国城镇化进入了以提升质量为特征的减速阶段,农民工有序完成迁移第二个过程,即在城市定居下来,这是高质量城镇化的重要组成部分,而快速上涨的城市房价对农民工定居意愿的影响日益凸显.本文首先构建中国城乡人口迁移两个过程的理论模型,分析城市住房价格对农民工定居意愿的影响及作用机制;其次将2012-2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据与288个城市数据匹配进行实证检验.研究发现,城市高房价显著降低了农民工的定居意愿,而定居意愿下降将会阻滞城镇化的进程.机制检验发现,城市高房价主要通过提高农民工家庭在城市的预期购房成本进而降低其定居意愿.此外,本文还进行了个体异质性和城市异质性检验.个体异质性检验发现,城市高房价对第二代、低受教育水平和本地无房农民工定居意愿的负向影响更大,对更高收入水平、更大发展空间以及可获得公共服务农民工定居意愿的负向影响更小;城市异质性检验发现,随着城市规模的扩大,城市高房价对农民工定居意愿影响的负向作用逐渐增大.本文的政策含义是抑制城市房价过快上涨、提高农民工收入和福利水平、提供更为平等的公共服务,以及解决好进城农民工"三权"有偿退出问题,可以增强农民工的定居意愿,推动城镇化高质量发展.