Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

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民营企业的业绩评价具有辅助决策和自我诊断的功能。在民营企业面临进一步发展的今天,研究民营企业的业绩评价有一定的现实意义。当前我国对民营企业的业绩评价的依据主要是通过各项指标的测评,其中,绝大部分为财务指标。在市场经济条件下,仅靠财务指标来衡量一个企业,是不能全面反映出企业的现有实力和综合发展潜力的。因此,非财务指标与财务指标在民营企业的业绩评价中具有同等重要的作用。     

市场导向下的邮发报刊业务浅析

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Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

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浅析公共服务有效供给的新模式

通过对公共服务的属性分析，结合新政治经济学理论和政府失败的现实因素，探索公益物品的有效供给模式，提出了公共服务的签约转包机制，并分析了这一机制的不足和政府的作用。     

文献保护技术的挑战与未来

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浅析实现图书馆现代化的几个要素

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软件无线电及其实现方案的研究

在介绍软件无线电的产生、基本概念和系统结构的同时，分析了实现软件无线电的关键技术，并给出了基于目前器件技术水平的中频软件无线电流程框图的折衷方案，最后指出软件无线电技术的美好前景。     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

日本政府新世纪的农业策略与启示

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