Direct Democracy and Local Public Finances under Cooperative Federalism

In this paper, we exploit the introduction of the right of local initiatives in the German state of Bavaria in 1995 in order to study the fiscal effects of direct democracy. Our identification strategy combines difference‐in‐differences and regression discontinuity methods: we compare municipal expenditure and revenue between pre‐ and post‐reform periods at population thresholds where the signatures needed to launch initiatives and minimum quorum requirements decrease discontinuously (difference‐in‐discontinuities design). The results suggest that stronger direct democratic institutions lead to an expansion of local government size.     

Competition versus cooperation: How technology-facilitated social interdependence initiates the self-improvement chain

Consumers are increasingly using technologies such as wearables or mobile apps to achieve their self-improvement goals. Such technologies often contain features that enable social interdependence (competition or cooperation) among users to support them in improving their engagement, performance, and well-being (life satisfaction and personal growth). However, the critical question remains: does competition or cooperation best serve users in attaining these self-improvement goals? Evidence from an online experiment and a field study reveals that competition is more effective in driving performance and personal growth, while cooperation is superior in terms of behavioral engagement and life satisfaction. Furthermore, the results indicate that the effects are mediated by strive for success and fear of failure, two counteracting psychological processes. While competition is the stronger trigger for both pathways, downstream effects vary depending on the self-improvement goal considered. This research thus provides insights into whether and how users can best realize their self-improvement goals using technologies that include social features.     

Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders

This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders’ characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with high price impact. More information is conveyed by those traders’ trades which—simultaneously—use medium-sized orders (practice stealth trading), have large trading volume, are located in a financial center, trade early in the trading session, at times of wide spreads and when the order book is thin.     

Viewing Tax Policy Through Party‐Colored Glasses: What German Politicians Believe

Abstract. The process of globalization has an important impact on national tax policies. Most of the literature does not focus directly on the political decision‐making process and assumes that the desired tax policy is responding to objective underlying tradeoffs. Based on an original survey of members of the German national parliament (Bundestag) in 2006/07, we document a strong ideological bias among policy‐makers with respect to the perceived mobility of international tax bases (real capital and paper profits). Ideology also influences, directly and indirectly, the perceived national autonomy in tax setting and preferences for a European Union minimum tax for companies. There seems little consensus as to what the efficiency costs of capital taxation in open economies are, even though our survey falls in a period of extensive debate about, and actual adoption of, a company tax reform bill in Germany.     

The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated US recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the US economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve??s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates.     

Tax contracts and elections

In this paper we examine the impact of tax contracts as a novel institution on elections, policies, and welfare. We consider a political game in which three parties compete to form the government and voters may behave strategically. Parties have policy preferences about the level of public-good provision and benefit from perks when in office. A government raises taxes for both purposes. We show that tax contracts yield moderate policies and lead to lower perks by avoiding the formation of grand coalitions in order to win government. Moreover, in polarized societies they unambiguously improve the welfare of the median voter.     

Does globalization restrict budgetary autonomy?

Does globalization restrict the leeway for national budgetary policy? With the help of cluster and discriminant analysis this study provides evidence on the basis of the experience of OECD countries since the 1970s. The results suggest that while globalization does indeed matter for government budgets, substantial room is left for individual national policies particularly with regard to public expenditure structure and public debt.     

Don't Tax Me? Determinants of Individual Attitudes Toward Progressive Taxation

This contribution empirically analyzes the individual determinants of tax rate preferences. For that purpose, we use representative survey data from the German General Social Survey, which offers information on attitudes toward progressive, proportional and regressive taxation. On the basis of theoretical considerations, we explore the factors which, beyond an individual's financial interest, should drive preferences for progressive taxation. Our empirical results confirm that the narrow redistributive self‐interest does not offer the sole explanation of the heterogeneity in individual attitudes. Rather, we show that the choice of the favored tax rate is also driven by fairness considerations and beliefs on the role of effort for economic success.     

Marketing messbar machen — die wirkung von empfehlungsnetzwerken auf die marketing performance

Netzwerke und Kooperationen sind entscheidende Instrumente zur Steigerung des Unternehmenswertes. Bisher haben sich Ans?tze hier auf die Unternehmensseite (Wertsch?pfungs-, Entwicklungsund Vertriebsnetzwerke) konzentriert. In jüngster Zeit rücken auch Netzwerke auf Nachfragerseite etwa in Form von Kommunikations- und Empfehlungsnetzwerken zunehmend in den Blickpunkt. Solche sozialen Netzwerke k?nnen gerade durch Marketingma?nahmen initiiert und gestaltet werden. Sie sind zentrale Stellhebel zur Steigerung der Marketing Performance und somit zur Legitimierung der Marketingfunktion.