The α-stable processes and their relationship with the exponent of self-similarity: Exchange rates of USA Dollar,Canadian Dollar,Euro and Yen

This research work analyzes the yields of the exchange rate parities of the American dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, and Yen; estimates the basic statistics and the α-stables; carries out the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Lilliefors goodness of fit tests; estimates the self-similar exponents and carries out the t and F tests, ruling out that the series of parities are multifractal. It also estimates the confidence intervals of the exchange rate parities and concludes that the estimated α-stable distributions are more efficient than the Gaussian distribution to quantify the risks of the market, and that the series are self-similar. Through the ? index, we can infer the risk of the events, indicating that the parities are anti-persistent and thus have short-term memory, mean reversion, and a negative correlation with the high risk in the short and medium term. The estimation and validation of the α-stable distributions and the self-similar exponent are important in the evaluation and creation of innovative investment instruments through financial engineering, risk administration, and the evaluation of derived products.     

Exploring the Ethical Dimension of Hawala

The aim of this paper is to explore the ethical dimension of hawala, an ancient informal financial practice rooted in Islamic moral traditions. Widely used in countries with an Islamic background and their diasporas, hawala is considered an important vehicle for the financial and economic development of some less developed countries. Nevertheless, in Western countries, hawala is regarded with suspicion due its controversial ethical nature. Unlike other Islamic financial institutions, the controversial questions are not the legitimacy of profit sources or the interest charged, but rather the lack of transparency that surrounds hawala transactions. Yet, the literature on hawala has neglected its ethical perspective. Our study delves into this dimension with a critical approach, using the Triple Font Theory, grounded on virtue ethics. We conclude that if hawala transactions are carried out with honesty, and fairness, this practice deserves a positive ethical appraisal. However, it is necessary to implement efficient regulatory measures to guarantee that the system is not abused by money launders and criminals. In practice, it becomes imperative to bring over a change in the regulatory approach to hawala toward a more ethically, culturally, and economically sensitive strategy. Thus, future research should focus on how “hyper-norms” or fundamental principles inherent to humanity, which are common to both “formal” and “informal,” “Western” and “non-Western” financial practices, could run the new AML/CTF regulation agenda.     

The death of development theory: From Friedrich von Hayek to the Washington consensus

Abstract

Development strategies followed by many countries in the 20th century bestowed a relevant role to the State. During the 1970s, it all reversed, and free markets became paramount to efficiency. F. von Hayek and the Mount Pelerin Society led the way to eliminate the State as a significant economic player, while P.T. Bauer extended such ideas to development economics, which would eventually give way to the Washington Consensus. Beyond actual results of such policies, it is surprising to see the appeal of Bauer’s theoretical approach, considering that it is constructed disregarding both empirical evidence, as well as the abundant discussion on development that was taking place contemporarily. This article explores the theoretical process of such reversal in development economics theory.     

¿Hay evidencia de ciclo político-económico en el empleo sectorial de México, 1998-2013?

This paper looks for evidence of political-business cycles associated to the presidential elections in the Mexican sectorial employment over the period 1998-2013. By estimating panel data models, and controlling for the effects of the major determinants of employment, no evidence consistent with the predictions of the theoretical opportunistic model is found, i.e. whereas employment shows an expansion before and during the elections periods, the estimates are neither statistically significant nor robust. Furthermore, employment does not experience contractions after the elections or the office taking periods. Notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that employment is positively and negatively affected by output and real wages, respectively.     

Size,time-varying beta,and conditional heteroscedasticity in UK stock returns

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between firm size and time-varying betas of UK stocks. We extend the Schwert and Seguin (1990)(Journal of Finance 45, 1120–1155) methodology by explicitly modeling conditional heteroscedasticity in the market model residual returns. Our results show that the time-varying coefficient is not statistically significant for both small and large firm stock indexes. We also find that accounting for GARCH effects in the Schwert-Seguin market model yields beta estimates that are markedly differently from those when conditional heteroscedasticity is ignored. Event studies that ignore conditional heteroscedasticity may bias the abnormal returns of small and large firms, thereby leading to a different conclusion regarding the significance of an information event.     

Saddled with Attention: Overreaction to Bankruptcy Filings

We analyze the effect of investor attention on stock prices around Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. We measure investor attention as abnormal search volume from Google, and find that attention‐grabbing companies have more negative abnormal stock returns in the days before and during bankruptcy filings and more positive abnormal returns immediately thereafter. That is, for companies receiving high attention, investors overreact to a bankruptcy filing; for companies receiving low attention, they underreact. This pattern is more pronounced for companies with low institutional ownership and holds after controlling for standard predictors of stock performance during bankruptcy.     

Labor Reform in Mexico,Analysis of Principal Changes and Method of Recruitment

Actually, the country＇s development aims to achieve higher levels of productivity, so it had to adapt to international standards. This has served to ease the hiring of both operational and managerial controls, giving emphasis on training and allowing the pairing boss-worker to take the productivity like benchmark. The labor reform allows companies to make changes with their workers; such changes must be reflected in lower costs for businesses, by labor input and increased competitiveness, however, two years ago this guideline was implanted and society asks if the results are congruent, because Mexican society is undergoing economics problems issue as well as a deficit in generating jobs. Therefore, analyzing whether modifications made to the federal labor law （FLL） are designed to optimize safety of workers and enterprises in which they work is the subject of this research. The corresponding analysis was performed using the deductive method.