STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF INPUT–OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS ON THE BASIS OF USE AND MAKE TABLES

Although technical coefficients are estimated on the basis of flow data (use and make matrices), they are rarely treated as random variables. If this is done, an error term is added to the coefficients, rather than derived from the distribution of the data. Even so, the calculation of multipliers, by means of the Leontief inverse, is difficult. Due to the nonlinearity of this operation, the multiplier estimates are biased. By going back to the flow data, this paper provides unbiased and consistent employment and output multipliers estimates for the Andalusian economy. Rectangular use and make matrices are accommodated and problems associated with the construction and estimation of technical coefficients and the Leontief inverse are circumvented.     

The use–make framework and the derivation of functional forms in production theory

The use–make framework is employed to explain functional forms in production theory, including Cobb–Douglas and Leontief. Productivity and efficiency are interrelated by augmenting the framework with a linear program that determines the frontier output.     

The Effect of Risk Context on the Value of a Statistical Life: a Bayesian Meta-model

This paper presents the first value of statistical life (VSL) meta-analysis that empirically estimates correction factors for ‘out of context’ benefits transfer (BT) purposes. In the field of mortality risk reductions elicited willingness to pay values in one risk context, say road safety, are frequently applied in other risk contexts like air pollution. However, differences in risk perception and the population at risk across contexts are likely to result in diverging VSL estimates. In a meta-analysis of 26 international stated preference studies, a Bayesian model is estimated regressing contingent values for mortality risk reductions, originating from three different risk contexts, on the characteristics of the risk reduction itself and additional variables characterizing the underlying studies. A willingness to pay (WTP) premium for mortality risk reductions in the air pollution and general mortality risk context relative to improving road safety is observed. Evaluated at the mean, road safety VSL estimates should be multiplied by a factor 1.8 before being applicable in the air pollution context. Moreover, in an illustrative BT exercise we find limited overlap in the set of context specific predictive VSL distributions. Consequently, ‘out of context’ BT results in a substantial over- or underestimation of the VSL.     

Choice Certainty and Consistency in Repeated Choice Experiments

The main objective of this study is to examine how repeated choice affects preference learning in stated preference experiments. We test different hypotheses related to preference learning by analyzing response patterns and asking respondents in a choice experiment to report their experienced certainty when going through the choice tasks. In a split-sample test, we show that follow-up choice certainty questions are procedural invariant. The self-reported certainty results indicate that learning occurs, but econometric testing procedures do not identify any significant impact of learning effects on parameter estimates or variance across choice tasks. Additional tests of choice consistency suggest that preferences in the choice experiment are stable and coherent.     

General competitive equilibrium of the spatial economy : Two Teasers

The local indivisibility of space complicates general equilibrium analysis. Mazzoleni and Montesano (1984, p. 286), suggest that the usual reasoning of the non-spatial analyses of competitive equilibrium can be performed in the context of a commodity space that contains subsets of land. This space, however, lacks a linear structure, so it resists application of the usual reasoning. Two examples will show that Mazzoleni and Montesano's existence results are flawed.     

试论恶意透支信用卡犯罪及其立法完善

恶意透支犯罪是当前经济领域中利用信用卡作为犯罪工具的一种犯罪，是信用卡诈骗罪最常见的一种表现形式，其特征相对其他信用卡犯罪有特殊之处，因此有必要对恶意透支进行分析，予以准确界定，以便协调立法冲突。本文围绕恶意透支信用卡犯罪中的一些疑难问题做了探讨，并为完善立法提出了建议，以求共识。     

Water on Fire: Gains from Electricity Trade

In light of the ongoing liberalization of electricity trade in the Nordic countries, and perhaps in Northern Europe, we argue that gains from electricity trade may be different from those traditionally associated with comparative advantages and economies of scale. In particular, we consider gains arising from the exploitation of technological complementarities between hydro and thermal systems. Our theoretical framework highlights essential features of the two systems and allows for an analysis of effects of trade. We study three trading regimes, which may arise either endogenously or because of trade regulations: day–night power exchange, seasonal energy banking and unbalanced trade. The analysis suggests that gradual trade liberalization may be costly.     

Patterns on an ancient artifact: a coincidence?

The Phaistos Disk is an ancient artifact from Crete. At each side of the disk, a series of unknown signs is written along a spiral. Professional archaeologists expect that we will only learn what it is until similar objects are found. A statistical analysis in this article shows what it is not: it is not a one‐dimensional text, since there are relations between the signs in adjacent windings of the spiral. Three patterns of such relations have been identified. A Monte Carlo simulation of one of them has been performed, using a model of the spiral form. It is concluded that the probability of this pattern being coincidental is small, well below the conventional threshold.