Booms, Busts, and Fraud

Firms sometimes commit fraud by altering publicly reported informationto be more favorable, and investors can monitor firms to obtainmore accurate information. We study equilibrium fraud and monitoringdecisions. Fraud is most likely to occur in relatively goodtimes, and the link between fraud and good times becomes strongeras monitoring costs decrease. Nevertheless, improving businessconditions may sometimes diminish fraud. We provide an explanationfor why fraud peaks towards the end of a boom and is then revealedin the ensuing bust. We also show that fraud can increase iffirms make more information available to the public.     

Fashion retail forecasting by evolutionary neural networks

Recent literature on nonlinear models has shown that neural networks are versatile tools for forecasting. However, the search for an ideal network structure is a complex task. Evolutionary computation is a promising global search approach for feature and model selection. In this paper, an evolutionary computation approach is proposed in searching for the ideal network structure for a forecasting system. Two years’ apparel sales data are used in the analysis. The optimized neural networks structure for the forecasting of apparel sales is developed. The performances of the models are compared with the basic fully connected neural networks and the traditional forecasting models. We find that the proposed algorithms are useful for fashion retail forecasting, and the performance of it is better than the traditional SARIMA model for products with features of low demand uncertainty and weak seasonal trends. It is applicable for fashion retailers to produce short-term retail forecasting for apparels, which share these features.     

Effect of Order of Contribution in a Sequential Public Goods Dilemma

This study examined how order of contribution in a sequential public goods dilemma affected cooperation. Under a sequential protocol of play, players of different levels of efficacy made decisions one after another. We contrasted a High-to-low versus Low-to-high Efficacy order in a nine-person game. Under a High-to-low order, high-efficacy players made decisions in positions 1–3, medium-efficacy players in positions 4–6, and low-efficacy players in positions 7–9. Under a Low-to-high order, the positions of high- and low-efficacy players were reversed. We hypothesized that cooperation rates would be higher in the High-to-low order that high-efficacy players (assigned in early positions), who would likely cooperate, would induce subsequent players to cooperate also. We found the anticipated effect that cooperation rate was higher in the High-to-low than the Low-to-high efficacy order. The efficacy order effect was the most prominent when people perceived that their group was becoming uncooperative. This study illustrates a new type of structural solution to social dilemmas that by systematically assigning people to different sequential positions, a group can be made more or less cooperative.     

Daily short interest,idiosyncratic risk,and stock returns

This paper examines the relation between short selling and returns and the impact of arbitrage costs on short sellers’ behavior. Using daily UK short selling data, we find that stocks with low short interest levels experience significant positive returns on both an equal- and value-weighted basis. Economic theory predicts that short sellers avoid establishing positions in stocks with high idiosyncratic risk. Our results indicate a negative relation between short interest and returns among high idiosyncratic risk stocks and that short selling activity is mostly concentrated in low idiosyncratic risk stocks where it is less costly to arbitrage fundamental risk.     

Spieltheoretische Analyse von Konflikt und Kooperation

Mit dem diesj?hrigen Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften wurden die Forscher Robert Aumann und Thomas Schelling für ihre spieltheoretischen Beitr?ge zu Konflikt und Kooperation in (wiederholten) Spielen ausgezeichnet. Inwieweit haben die beiden Forscher die Spieltheorie weiterentwickelt? Auf welche zentralen sozialwissenschaftlichen Fragestellungen lassen sich ihre Erkenntnisse anwenden?     

Are New Zealand Business Students More Unethical Than Non-Business Students?

Using undergraduate students from the Waikato University in New Zealand as a sample, this study compared the ethical positions of students of different field of study and demographic characteristics. It was found that the ethical standard of business students are not significantly different from that of non-business students. The findings also suggest that female students are more ethical than male students, and senior students are more ethical than junior students.Besides sex and year of study, other variables studied were parents' occupation, religiosity and household income of the students. All these variables were found to have no significant impact on the ethical position of the students. Furthermore, all the interaction effects between the variables studied and the students' major field of study were nonsignificant.