The accuracy of technological forecasts, 1890–1940

Predictions of future technological changes and the effects of those changes, made by Americans between 1890 and 1940, are compared to the actual outcomes. Overall, less than half of the predictions have been fulfilled or are in the process of fulfilment. The accuracy of predictions appears at best weakly related to general technical expertise, and unrelated to specific expertise. One expert (or non-expert) appears to be as good a predictor as another. Predictions of continuing status quo are not significantly more or less accurate than predictions of change. Predictions of the effects of technology are significantly less accurate than predictions of technological changes.     

Would the payment of market rates for non‐executive directors strengthen charity governance?

This paper considers the academic literature suggesting that the governance and management of charities is far from perfect, a problem that is frequently attributed to the difficulty charities have in recruiting suitable people to act as trustees. The paper raises the question of whether charity governance has a value — and a price worth paying for. The paper describes research carried out to test the attitude of a section of potentially suitable managers to charity trusteeship and to remuneration for such responsibilities. It concludes that there are substantial numbers of able trustees willing to serve on a voluntary basis; the perceived shortage is more likely to arise from charities' own recruitment failings than from a shortage of supply. But it also concludes that the supply of suitable trustees could be doubled if reasonable remuneration were offered, and there is some evidence that existing trustees might give higher priority to their duties if they were paid. Results are based on a sample of just over 100 responses, but a further survey is in progress. Initial results broadly confirm the results reported here. Further research to explore the desirability and practicality of paying charity trustees is indicated. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Facing the Age Wave and Economic Policy: Fixing Public Pension Systems with Healthcare in the Wings*

There are two overriding problems faced by ageing societies. One is the financing of public pension (social security in US terms) programmes. The other is paying for healthcare. This paper considers the healthcare issue briefly, emphasising that the issue arises primarily because of advances in medical technology. Better medical technology will improve healthcare in the future, but more advanced technologies also cost more. The focus of the rest of the paper is on the public pension problem. The emphasis is on the early retirement incentives inherent in the provisions of most public pension programmes around the world, the reduction in the labour force participation of older people caused by these incentives, and the large fiscal implication of the inducement of older people to leave the labour force. These results are based on the Gruber–Wise ongoing international social security comparison project.     

Entrepreneurial ecosystems and the lifecycle of university business incubators: An integrative case study

University business incubators (UBIs) are an important part of the ecosystem that supports entrepreneurial activities and economic development. Extant research has focused on examining UBI activities at a single point in time, but there is a paucity of theoretical and empirical work aimed at understanding the forces that explain why and how UBIs change over time. This is an important gap because establishing a university business incubator does not assure its development and growth. We address this issue by drawing upon the Fisher et al. Academy of Management Review, 41(3), 383-409 (2016) Identity-Legitimacy-Life Cycle model to explain how the pursuit of resources and organizational legitimacy shapes the development of UBIs along key strategic and operational dimensions, which has implications for performance evaluation over time. We illustrate with a case study about the creation and evolution of the DMZ, a leading UBI at Ryerson University in Canada. This case provides new insights about the dynamics of UBIs and their relationships with the entrepreneurial ecosystems in which they are embedded. Implications for future research, management practice, and public policy are discussed.

     

An Investigation into the Potential Adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards in the United States: Implications and Implementation

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) have been adopted by most of the G20 countries. Given the broad worldwide acceptance of IFRS and significance of attaining comparability to facilitate free flow of capital, the US standard setter, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) made a commitment to jointly work with the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to explore the possibilities of convergence of US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) with IFRS. In 2007, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) eliminated the requirement that foreign companies listed on the US stock exchanges reconcile their IFRS‐based financial statements with the US GAAP. In the same year the US SEC issued a concept release to the public requesting comments on a proposal to allow US issuers to prepare financial statements in accordance with IFRS. Following these initiatives by the FASB and SEC, the aim of the present study is to investigate the implications of a potential full adoption of IFRS by the US. The present study details the challenges and benefits of adoption and outlines the steps required for a successful outcome of this process.     

Pension Portfolio Choice and Peer Envy

I examine the effect of envy on the portfolio allocation of workers in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. If a worker’s DC plan performs better than his co‐worker’s, he may gloat; on the other hand, if his DC plan performs worse, he may feel envy. I model anticipated envy when workers make portfolio allocations, and find that in equilibrium, workers will mimic their co‐worker’s allocation to eliminate the disutility from envy. This portfolio allocation is riskier than that of a worker who does not exhibit envy.     

An exploratory review of the relationship between enterprise training and technology upgrading: evidence from South African manufacturing firms

The study examines the extent to which disaggregated training variables are related to technological upgrading, in the context of a middle-income developing country trying to manage its integration into the global economy. For a developing country, successful integration into the global economy requires that local manufacturing firms are able to competitively restructure, as a precondition for survival and long-term growth. Consequently, skills and technological upgrading are crucial in raising the international competitive advantage of local firms. Enterprise-provided training is one means that can be used by local firms to continuously upgrade their knowledge bases, increase their international competitiveness, and enhance employment growth over time. This paper uses South Africa as a case study, to demonstrate how economic reform measures can expose skills deficiencies in the manufacturing sector and lead to an increase in capital intensity of the sector. Exposure of skills deficiencies, in turn, raises the importance of skill-upgrading through schooling and training of existing workforce. Despite a couple of studies on the evolution of the labour market in South Africa, no previous research has explicitly examined the relationship between technological upgrading and disaggregated training/learning variables at the firm level. This paper aims to fill that gap by focusing on disaggregated enterprise-based training efforts. The study uses the Human Capital theoretical framework to answer the main research question: Which disaggregated learning variables (i.e., on-the-job or off-the-job training offered to different occupational groups) are significantly associated with technological upgrading? The study raises possible issues of heterogeneity in returns to training offered to different occupational groups in the context of technological-upgrading. On the other hand, technological upgrading may not necessarily always disadvantage all unskilled workers. Possible policy implications of research findings are outlined.