Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

When Do Qualitative Risk Disclosures Backfire? The Effects of a Mismatch in Hedge Disclosure Formats on Investors' Judgments

Disclosure standards mandate the quantitative disclosure of hedging‐instrument‐related risks but not the disclosure of hedged‐item‐related risks. We examine how a match (mismatch) in formats, caused by making quantitative (qualitative) hedged item disclosures alongside quantitative hedging instrument disclosures, affects investors' integration of information from these two related disclosures. Our first experiment varies the hedged item disclosure format (quantitative or qualitative) and the portion of risk hedged (small or large). We find that when disclosure formats are mismatched, the less comparable nature of the two disclosures caused investors to neglect the offsetting relationship when assessing net risks. As a result, risk and investment judgments were influenced by the more prominent quantitative hedging instrument disclosures. Our second experiment finds that the use of a qualitative debiaser that clarifies the relationship between the two disclosures led to the integration of information and mitigated this effect.     

对齐齐哈尔市奶牛产业可持续发展的思考与建议

齐齐哈尔是农业大市,有发展奶牛产业的极大优势,奶牛产业化工作成绩突出,但与发达国家和地区相比,还存在许多不足,因此,做大做强齐齐哈尔市的奶牛产业还有很多事情要做.     

保税区转型中的金融环境建设

我国保税区的发展已进入战略调整与体制转型的关键时期,无论是区域扩张、港区联动,还是企业运营,都对其金融环境的完善提出了新的要求.为此,应在对保税区金融服务进行评价的基础上,从软环境和硬环境两个方面,探讨转型过程中保税区金融环境重构的战略措施.     

完善欠发达地区在区域不平衡发展中的促动机制

区域不平衡发展是一个普遍的规律,欠发达地区应根据不平衡发展理论,吸取经验教训,建立科学的不平衡发展促动机制。     

高职院校图书馆信息服务的研究

高职院校图书馆应充分利用现有馆藏资源,积极开展多种形式的信息服务,努力提高图书馆的文献利用率.     

目前“信心”尤其重要

有人说,现在房地产业已经到了冬天;有人说,房地产业就在寒冬里;还有人说,房地产的冬天即将过去.前一个时期舆论的热点话题如"拐点论"、"百日巨变论"、"断供说",简直撑破了眼球.     

以质量为本振兴企业

以质量为根本，全面提高企业管理水平，最终达到提高经济效益的目的。