脱贫与经济增长:"贵州新现象"探析——贵州云南两省的比较研究

经济增长通常意味着贫困率的下降,然而,对于增长很慢的经济体或经济增长没有带动贫困率降低的案例,这种假设似乎并不成立.中国两个较为贫困省份的数据展示了这样一个谜题:贵州省的经济增长缓慢但农村贫困率的下降较为显著,对这一现象不妨称之为"贵州新现象";与此同时,云南省经济高速增长但贫困率下降较为迟缓.根据相关考察和统计数据的分析,交通、流动人口、旅游业和矿产业四个因素是解释这个谜题的关键.这四个因素在两个省的不同分布和构造解释了它们经济增长与贫困率下降关系中的不平衡性.     

Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.     

Service innovation as a political process

Service innovation processes are driven by stakeholders in interaction and are understood and sketched as a value negotiation process that consists of an iterative process of securing potential value in service. While previous research has focused on service innovation as a harmonious closed system, our study explores service innovation as a political process in which stakeholders negotiate to create and secure future value. Data are collected through interviews and participant observations in four different case studies. Our study contributes to the field by illuminating service innovation as a political process and explaining how this is operationalized. The findings also contribute to an understanding of how stakeholder resources impact a chosen strategy; the resulting strategy’s impact on the service concept vis-à-vis its potential value; and how several involved stakeholders formulate, negotiate, and secure future potential value, which are the activities that drive a service innovation process.     

The safety attitudes of people who use multi-purpose recreation facilities as a physical activity setting

Multi-purpose recreation facilities (MPRFs) are a popular setting for physical activity and it is therefore important that they are safe for all patrons. However, the attitudes of MPRF users towards safety are a potential barrier to the success of injury prevention programmes implemented within MPRFs. This article reports a survey of the safety attitudes of over 700 users of four indoor MPRFs. Factor analysis of 12 five-point Likert scale statements showed that the attitudes clustered around three major dimensions - the importance of safety, the benefits of safety and the perceptions of injury risk. Together, these three dimensions accounted for 49% of the variability in the attitudes. More than 85% of respondents agreed/strongly agreed that: safety was an important aspect of physical activity participation; being injured affected enjoyment of physical activity; people should adopt appropriate safety measures for all physical activity; and individuals were responsible for their own safety. The MPRF users, particularly women and older people, were generally safety conscious, believed in adopting safety measures, and were willing to take responsibility for their own safety. Facility managers can be confident that if they provide evidence-based injury prevention interventions in these settings, then users will respond appropriately and adopt the promoted behaviours.     

Strategic and organisational determinants of sophistication in deployed sales force automation systems within three industry sectors in the UK

Abstract

This paper investigates strategic and organisational context determinants of the sophistication of adopted sales force automation (SFA) systems in three UK industries: financial services, pharmaceuticals, and building/construction. Sophistication of adopted systems is associated with the organisation placing greater emphasis on information orientation, which is itself driven by an increased integration of IT and sales coupled with increased organisational slack. Increased integration of IT and sales is itself driven by increased strategic importance of sales coupled with increased use of internal communication networks. Importantly, a firm's marketing orientation, although also driven by the strategic importance of sales, has no impact on either information orientation or SFA sophistication. We discuss the implications of our findings to aid understanding of SFA implementation failure.     

Book review

Sales Management Concepts and Cases (4th Edition) by Douglas J. Dalrymple and William L. Cron. (John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York, 1992). 758 pages. £18.95. ISBN 0 471 57258 6.     

Identity,Self-Awareness,and Self-Deception: Ethical Implications for Leaders and Organizations

The ability of leaders to be perceived as trustworthy and to develop authentic and effective relationships is largely a function of their personal identities and their self-awareness in understanding and making accommodations for their weaknesses. The research about self-deception confirms that we often practice denial regarding our identities without being fully aware of the ethical duties that we owe to ourselves and to others. This article offers insights about the nature of identity and self-awareness, specifically examining how self-deception can create barriers to self-awareness within both a personal and a business context.     

“Organizational Terrorism” and Moral Choices – Exercising Voice When the Leader is the Problem

We introduce the concept of “organizational terrorism” to describe dysfunctional leaders who are abusive and who treat organizational members with contempt and disregard. After identifying the moral duties of leaders in organizations, we explain how organization members respond to their dissatisfaction with organizations through Exit, Voice, Loyalty, or Neglect. We explain why exercising voice is the most effective moral choice in dealing with dysfunctional leaders.     

Manufacturers need to show greater commitment to customer service

In order to improve their competitiveness, firms are being advised to be more responsive to customer needs, and there is evidence that customer service is becoming one of the key management issues of the 1990s. This article examines what manufacturing companies in the U. K. are doing in terms of customer service compared with managerial guidelines in the literature. The key concepts that have been advocated to make organizations more responsive and customer-driven are identified, and the extent to which this advice is followed is evaluated by conducting an empirical study of manufacturing companies. This comparison between what is preached in the literature and what is practiced by managers suggests that although managers may pay lip service to customers, their actions fall a long way short of what is required to be a customer-driven firm. The managerial implications are discussed.