Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches

On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we have experimented with four different approaches to estimate the synthetic euro's equilibrium exchange rate. Using a number of competing models with the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from an empirical (different estimates) and a theoretical viewpoint (different specifications). In this exercise, the 'Rest of the World' is proxied by the US, the UK, Japan and Switzerland, aggregated on the basis of trade weights.
We employed reduced form co–integration models, a structural VAR, a NATREX model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small–sized euro area wide macro–econometric model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level.     

Impact of the US–EC price war on major wheat exporters' shares of the Chinese market

China is both the world's largest producer and consumer of wheat. In an attempt to gain a larger slice of the important Chinese market, both the European Community and the United States have offered China subsidised wheat. In addition, other exporters have offered attractive credit arrangements to China. The objective of this paper is to measure the overall impact of these policies on each exporter's share of the Chinese market. To that end, an improved version of the constant market shares model is applied to data on Chinese wheat imports in the 1980's. The results indicate that the United States has been outperforming the other exporters since subsidised US wheat sales were authorised for China in 1987. The implications of the analysis for the smaller exporters and international wheat trade are discussed.     

Fairness in the Mail and Opportunism in the Internet: A Newspaper Experiment on Ultimatum Bargaining

Abstract. On 11 May 2001, readers of the Berliner Zeitung were invited to participate in an ultimatum bargaining experiment played in the strategy vector mode: each participant chooses not only how much (s)he demands of the DM1,000 pie but also which of the nine possible offers of DM100, 200, …, 900 (s)he would accept or reject. In addition, participants were asked to predict the most frequent type of behavior. Three randomly selected proposer–responder pairs were rewarded according to the rules of ultimatum bargaining and three randomly chosen participants of those who predicted the most frequent type of behavior received a prize of DM500. Decisions could be submitted by mail, fax or via the internet. Behavior is described, statistically analyzed and compared to the usual laboratory ultimatum bargaining results.     

THE LAST MILE: AN EXAMINATION OF EFFECTS OF ONLINE RETAIL DELIVERY STRATEGIES ON CONSUMERS

The Internet has increased the level of importance of the end‐consumer market to transportation carriers. In two between subject experiments, carrier disclosure on retail merchant websites is examined as a strategic differentiation strategy. Predictions are offered concerning effects of carrier disclosure strategies on product delivery‐related expectations, consumer attitudes, and intentions to purchase a product online. Results from Study 1 reveal significant differences between disclosure and nondisclosure of the carrier for numerous product delivery‐related variables, as well as many differences between the six carriers examined in this first study. Study 2 extends these findings by showing that providing consumers with a choice of carrier leads to increased levels of satisfaction with the online experience and greater willingness to buy, relative to nondisclosure and disclosure strategies.     

Internet impacts on supply chain management

The traditional way of managing supply chains has changed dramatically over the last 5 years. Face-to-face management, manual tracking systems, paper-dominated order processing systems, and wired communication links were the primary management tools available to logistics managers. Today, they are obsolete. The article provides an overview of some of the new tools and trends discussed in this issue, including website structure, e-purchasing, electronic marketplaces, building vendor relationships, and the use of the Internet in managing supply chains in China.     

Intraorganizational influences on business-to-business pricing strategies: A political economy perspective

Historically, researchers have addressed pricing issues from many different perspectives, including the firm's business model (cost structure, experience curve), stakeholders (customers and channel partners), competition (market structure and intensity), and macroeconomic issues (interest rates, economic growth). An important dimension of organizational price setting that has been neglected is the impact that the firm's internal political system, reflected in interdepartmental coordination and rivalry, has upon price setting. A study of managers who are influential in shaping the firm's pricing strategy was conducted to identify intraorganizational issues and their relative impact on the firm's pricing strategy. The results of the study provide important implications for the development and execution of a firm's pricing strategy.     

Simple Identification and Specification of Cointegrated Varma Models

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving‐average models, creating a simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in this case with fixed initial values there exists a so‐called final moving‐average representation. We prove that the specification strategy is consistent. The performance of the proposed method is investigated via a Monte Carlo study and a forecasting exercise for US interest rates. We find that our method performs well relative to alternative approaches for cointegrated series and methods which do not allow for moving‐average terms. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.