New evidence on the output-inflation trade-off from developing economies: the case of the CFA Franc zone

This aim of this paper is to give a contribution to the debate on whether output-inflation trade-offs are negatively influenced by the mean of inflation (as postulated by new-Keynesians) or by the variability of inflation (as postulated by neo-classical economists). To remove any concerns about the arbitrariness of the choice of the sample, the analysis will focus on a group of countries belonging to the same currency union, the Franc Zone. The results do not provide conclusive evidence on either theory as it was found that there existed a negative relation between the output-inflation trade-offs and the mean of inflation on the one hand, and the variability of inflation, on the other.     

The role of ethics and product personality in the intention to purchase organic food products: a structural equation modeling approach

The aim of the present study is to examine the role of ethical dimensions and product personality in the purchasing intention of organic food products. The Prospect method (Caprara et al. in Test Psicomet Metodol 7(3–4):113–128, 2000), which integrates the Five factors model of personality (cf. Digman in Annu Rev Psychol 41(1):417–440, 1990) and the Theory of planned behavior (Ajzen in Organ Behav Hum Decis Process, 50(2):179–211, 1991) extended to an ethical dimension, was employed, by using a Structural Equation Modeling approach. Results showed that moral norms—i.e., personal beliefs regarding what is right or wrong (Parker et al. in Br J Soc Psychol, 34(2):127–137, 1995)—can be considered the main motivator of purchasing intention, and they are, in turn, affected by subjective norms and product personality traits of Naturalness and Authenticity. Marketing implications for firms operating in the organic food industry are discussed, in their intent to shift from a “niche” market to a broader diffusion of these products.     

FDI and the Export Performance of Chinese Indigenous Firms: a Regional Approach

The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the export performance of Chinese indigenous firms. A panel data analysis is employed using data across 29 provinces over the 1985–99 period. Owing to the exceptionally uneven distribution of FDI, the analysis compares the impact of FDI on all provincial exports and exports of indigenous firms over the three macro-regions of China. While the findings of the empirical analysis should be viewed with caution, they do show that FDI has less influence on the export performance of indigenous firms than on all firms (foreign and indigenous). The findings imply that linkages between the foreign and domestic sectors need to be improved if FDI is to be a vehicle for improving the competitiveness of domestic firms. Alternatively, policies may have to be directed towards the indigenous firms themselves to enhance their export performance.     

Place the good after the bad: effects of emotional shifts on consumer memory

Marketing research has a limited understanding about the effects arising from emotional shifts (i.e., the transition from one emotion to another) during the same advertising message. This paper sheds light on this topic through two studies. Study 1 examines whether an advertising message that features a negative-to-positive emotional shift (i.e., a shift from a negative to a positive emotion) generates greater recall of an advertised brand than an advertising message with a neutral-to-positive emotional shift (i.e., a shift from a neutral to a positive emotion) or one with no emotional shift. Study 2 examines whether an advertising message that simulates a buyer-seller encounter—with the seller reproducing a negative-to-positive emotional shift via facial expressions—generates a greater recall of the advertised content than an identical advertisement with no emotional shift. Results confirm that a negative-to-positive shift facilitates the recall of both the brand and the advertised information.     

Innovation in knowledge-based professional service firms. An integrated conceptual model*

ABSTRACT

The current paper offers a new conceptual model to understanding innovation processes in professional service firms, to make hidden relationships more explicit and to find out what are the issues still unexplored. The paper employs a systematic literature review, and draws upon original categorizations of extant literature, to identify main processes for each category of PSFs. It unveils connections among a wide range of factors setting a conceptual model for innovation pathways and highlighting neglected questions relevant from both the theoretical and the practical perspectives.     

The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value

This paper reexamines the validity of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to 3 months. We extend the work of Longstaff [2000b. The term structure of very short term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. Journal of Financial Economics 58, 397–415] in two directions: (1) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (2) more important, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant.     

Euromind‐ : A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area

EuroMInd‐ is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom‐up approach, pooling the density estimates of 11 GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components' density estimates are obtained from a medium‐size dynamic factor model handling mixed frequencies of observation and ragged‐edged data structures. They reflect both parameter and filtering uncertainty and are obtained by implementing a bootstrap algorithm for simulating from the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters, and conditional simulation filters for simulating from the predictive distribution of GDP. Both algorithms process the data sequentially as they become available in real time. The GDP density estimates for the output and expenditure approach are combined using alternative weighting schemes and evaluated with different tests based on the probability integral transform and by applying scoring rules. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange

This paper investigates the empirical relation between spot and forward implied volatility in foreign exchange. We formulate and test the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis, which may be viewed as the volatility analogue to the extensively researched hypothesis of unbiasedness in forward exchange rates. Using a new dataset of spot implied volatility quoted on over-the-counter currency options, we compute the forward implied volatility that corresponds to the delivery price of a forward contract on future spot implied volatility. This contract is known as a forward volatility agreement. We find strong evidence that forward implied volatility is a systematically biased predictor that overestimates movements in future spot implied volatility. This bias in forward volatility generates high economic value to an investor exploiting predictability in the returns to volatility speculation and indicates the presence of predictable volatility term premiums in foreign exchange.     

A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption–wealth ratio: An international perspective

This paper re-examines the predictive ability of the consumption–wealth ratio (cay) on the equity premium using hand-collected annual data spanning one century for four major economies. In addition to statistical tests of out-of-sample forecast accuracy, we measure the economic value of the predictive information in cay in a stylized asset allocation strategy. We find that cay does not contain predictive power prior to World War II, when a structural break occurs for all countries. In the postwar period, while statistical tests provide mixed evidence, economic criteria uncover substantial predictive power in cay, further enhanced when allowing for economically meaningful restrictions.     

Context Effects on Older Consumers’ Cognitive Age: The Role of Hedonic versus Utilitarian Goals

This paper deals with older consumers’ cognitive age (i.e., the age they feel), which is self‐assessed as systematically lower than their chronological age (i.e., their actual age). Such a tendency would lead older consumers to display attitudes and purchasing behaviors, which are not typical of people of their real age. Two studies show that cognitive age is not an immutable construct but varies according to its context of reference, so that the same individual may feel different ages under different circumstances. Results demonstrate that the declared cognitive age is affected by the physical environment, the social references, and the product categories that the consumer is using when self‐assessing it. Furthermore, the tendency of older consumers to feel younger is stronger when these consumers are pursuing in these contexts hedonic rather than utilitarian goals. These findings provide novel inputs for the development of appropriate ways to measure cognitive age and to deal with it when targeting senior consumers and positioning hedonic versus utilitarian goods.