Savings, Investment, Productivity and Economic Growth of Australia 1861–1990: Some Explorations

Policy makers' concerns over sub-optimal savings rates in Australia mistakenly concentrate on symptoms rather than causes of low rates of growth in investment and productivity. A growth model of a small open economy is used to demonstrate possible interdependencies of these variables which are tested using cointegration and long-run Granger causality techniques for the periods 1861–1900 and 1949–90. As expected, no direct long-run relationship is found between savings and investment. However the interactions between investment and productivity growth are found to be complex and evolving, whilst savings appear to be determined residually in the growth process.     

The investment tax credit under monopolistic competition

This paper develops a dynamic model of monopolistic competitionwith finite lives. It investigates the welfare properties ofan investment tax credit (ITC) for both finite and infinitelives. For infinite lives, it shows that, lacking lump-sum taxes,an ITC suffices to attain a second-best solution. For finitelives, the paper considers the intergenerational welfare distributioneffects of an ITC. In the absence of debt policy, the investmenttax credit benefits future generations but may harm most ofthe existing generations. Using debt financing, the policy makercan redistribute the gains in a completely egalitarian fashion.     

On technical analysis

Technical analysis, or the use of past prices to infer privateinformation, has value in a model in which prices are not fullyrevealing and traders have rational conjectures about the relationbetween prices and signals. A two-period dynamic model of equilibriumis used to demonstrate that rational investors use historicalprices in forming their demands and to illustrate the sensitivityof the value of technical analysis to changes in the valuesof the exogenous parameters.