Municipal Bond Demand Premiums and Bond Price Volatility: A Note

The behavior of different components of municipal bond yields may have a significant impact upon bond price behavior. Specifically, demand premiums created by banks may stabilize bond yields in some maturity ranges but not in others; for example, short-term municipals may be stabilized but not long-term. This research implies that bank demand behavior may create demand premiums that stabilize prices of short-term municipal bonds relative to those of Treasury bonds of like maturity. While this implication is inconsistent with the residual theory of bank demand, it is consistent with the tax-shield theory attributed to Hendershott and Koch [3, 4].     

An Empirical Analysis of Australian Strike Activity: Estimating the Industrial Relations Effect of the First Three Years of the Prices and Incomes Accord*

Australian strike activity war relatively low in the 1983(2)-1986(1) period. Some part of this experience is attributable to changes in the macroeconomic environment and some is a consequence of improvements in industrial relations. This paper attempts to determine the role of each by estimating econometric models for the 1959(3)-1983(1) period and forecasting indicators of strike activity over the subsequent three years. We find that working days lost per unionist decreased because of macroeconomic conditions, but that these variables explain less than half of the actual decline. This suggests that, for the initial three-year period of its institution, the Accord helped deliver a favorable industrial relations environment, a situation that is not necessarily long-lasting. More generally, the results show strike activity to be pro-cyclical and influenced by profits and inflation.