A model of the Dutch labour market (AMO-K)

Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips mechanism and the impact of real wages on labour demand. To make it suitable for policy simulations, the model has been extended to a complete macro-econometric model, taking account of the fact that both labour and capital limit the production possibilities.This paper summarises an extensive Dutch report on the construction of a model for the Netherlands labour market. The title of the original report is AMO-K: Een arbeidsmarktmodel met twee categorieën arbeid; (AMO-K, A labour-market model with two categories of labour) ; it was published by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in Rotterdam in the so-called Olive Series, 1982-2, pp. 403ff. Some details of the model presented in that report were changed after its publication; see G. den Broeder, AMO-K 81-12, Tussenrapport betreffende de verdere ontwikkeling van het arbeidsmarktmodel (Interim report on the further development of the labourmarket model), Rotterdam, September 1983. Since then, only minor changes have been carried through. The model reproduced in this paper is the modified version. The model was developed within the National Programme of Labour-Market Research (NPAO) (now defunct), the NPAO organisation having granted a commission to the NEI in Rotterdam.     

Economic performance and “frontier” efficiency: A product life-cycle approach

We propose to introduce some economic performance variables of the firms and relate these with the corresponding frontier efficiency measures of 13 industries of the Belgian manufacturing sector in 1978. In order to find groups of similar firms by applying a cluster technique, we assume that this relationship is of a product life cycle nature.In the light of the product life cycle scheme itself and variations of it we can consider the possible explanatory variables of technical inefficiency in each group of firms as sources which intensify or slow-down the economic performance of the firm under consideration. Some cautious characterization of the top and bottom level clusters is formulated and linked to the efficiency issue.This paper was processed by N. R. Adam     

Environmental technology foresight: New horizons for technology management

Decision-making in corporate technology management and government technology policy is increasingly influenced by the environmental impact of technologies. Technology foresight (TF) and environmental impact assessment (EIA) are analyzed with regard to the roles they can play in developing long-term strategies and policies for reducing the environmental impact of technologies. The methods for TF and EIA are quite well developed, but remain within a tradition of rational decision-making. However, recent studies of tecnology management and innovation have shown that technology development can be explained only to a certain degree by rational decision-making. EIA is usually presented as an objective and scientific method, based on normative underpinnings that usually remain hidden. Thus, systematic information-providing instruments such as TF and EIA can play only a limited role. We propose a procedure for environmental technology foresight. The case is made that environmental technology management will be most helped by a 'constructive' approach in order to stimulate incorporation of long-term environmental objectives.     

基于混沌理论的企业集成创新研究

首先阐述了企业集成创新的理论内涵及其复杂性特征；然后，应用系统哲学观点，从混沌理论的视角，剖析了企业集成创新的混沌机制，这对企业制定创新战略具有指导性作用。     

中国古代海外贸易管理制度研究的新成果——郑有国著《中国市舶制度研究》评介

海外贸易史在中国传统史学中原是较为薄弱的一个研究领域,有关中国海外贸易管理制度的探讨自然不多。上个世纪二三十年代以来,日本学者藤田丰八《宋代市舶司与市舶条例》、桑原骘藏《蒲寿庚考》等著作的问世,开启了中国古代海外贸易管理制度研究的先河。迟至八十年代初,陈高华、吴泰先生合著《宋元时期的海外贸易》,中国学者逐渐涉足这一领域的研究。随后,漆侠先生《宋代市舶抽解制度》(《河南大学学报》,1985年第1期),台湾学者     

Determinants of internal and external R&D: Some Dutch evidence

Summary Innovating firms can choose to engage in either internal or external R&D, or in both. In the current study, we shall examine internal and external R&D separately to determine empirically the market structure characteristics explaining the external R&D share and the differences in market structure determinants between internal and external R&D. Our results indicate that a government policy that aims at stimulating technological progress by offering external research facilities is particularly interesting for smaller, capital-intensive firms operating in less concentrated markets.We would like to thank Alfred Kleinknecht for providing the R&D data and Kees Bakker and Yvonne Prince for providing the market structure data. We thank Alfred Kleinknecht, Bart Nooteboom and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions We acknowledge a research grant from the Stichting KMO Fonds.     

Investments,wages, prices and demand for labour

Summary Since 1971 the employment in the Netherlands has continuously decreased. Apart from the decrease caused by the recent depression, particularly in the year 1975, the decrease is a more pronounced continuation of a tendency which is manifest already in a number of years before. In this paper an attempt is made to explain the structural development of employment by means of a clay-clay vintage model. It appears that the unfavourable development of employment is connected with the accelerated growth of real labour costs in the past decade.This article is a translation of a revised and somewhat extended version of a paper published earlier in Dutch: H. den Hartog and H. S. Tjan,Investeringen, lonen, prijzen en arbeidsplaatsen, Central Planning Bureau, Occasional Paper, 1974/2, The Hague, 1974. This revised version of the clay-clay vintage model was introduced into a much more complete model of the economy of the Netherlands in: H. den Hartog, Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert and H. S. Tjan, De structurele ontwikkeling van de werkgelegenheid in macro-economisch perspectief, inWerkloosheid, Preadviezen van de Vereniging voor de Staathuishoudkunde, The Hague, 1975.     

Risk measurement distortion: an improved model of return smoothing

We examine the effects of smoothed hedge fund returns on standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of return and on correlation of returns using a MA(2)-GARCH(1,1)-skewed-t representation instead of the traditional MA(2) model employed in the literature. We present evidence that our proposed representation is more consistent with the behavior of hedge fund returns than the traditional MA(2) representation and that the traditional method tends to overstate the degree of smoothing observed in hedge fund returns. We examine methods for correcting the distortive effects of smoothing using our representation.