AN EXTENDED MEASURE OF GOVERNMENT PRODUCT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1946–76

Expanded measures of government output include imputed values of the services of government capital, uncompensated factor services of military draftees and jurors, and net revaluations, as well as the usually included compensation of employees. The government output is allocated to consumption, capital formation and product intermediate to other sectors, on the basis of its classification in ten broad functions: defense, space research, education, health, sanitation, transportation, parks and recreation, natural resources, welfare, and general administration. Final government product in 1976, including $116 billion in defense and $125 billion in education, amounted to $450.5 billion, which was 26.5 percent of the 1976 GNP. This final government product corresponded to the BEA measure of $191.6 billion.
Total capital formation related to government is defined to include both government product which enters into capital formation in other sectors and government expenditures for its own capital accumulation. After a more rapid rate of growth in previous years, this total government capital formation in the United States in 1976 is found to exceed gross private domestic investment. A significant but only minor portion was found to be constituted by government expenditures for capital goods and change in government inventories. Investment in research and development, health and, particularly, education and training, were dominant components in capital formation related to government.     

TOTAL INCOMES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1946–1976: A SUMMARY REPORT

Extended accounts of total income and product and associated capital stocks for the United States, in current and constant dollars, are offered for the years 1946 to 1976. They include intangible and tangible capital accumulation and non-market and market outputs in all sectors, services of government and household capital and of unpaid household labor, and opportunity costs of students. Defense and police services are classified as intermediate product; a portion of commercial media services is counted as final product. Expenses related to work are subtracted while the values of employee training and human capital formation and net revaluations of existing tangible capital are added.
Total incomes (TISA) net national product was 50 percent greater than official Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) NNP in 1976. BEA gross private domestic investment was only about 18 percent of TISA gross capital accumulation. Intangible investment and TISA net domestic capital accumulation grew more rapidly than BEA net private domestic investment. Household investment has been growing while there have been sharp declines in government investment, particularly in research and development. Contrary to some views of the import of the narrower BEA accounts, total capital accumulation appears to have risen considerably more rapidly than total consumption, 6.3 percent versus 2.2 percent per annum from 1946 to 1976, thus increasing sharply its share of TISA GNP.     

Tax policy and investment in major U.S. macroeconomic econometric models

In an analysis of six major U.S. quarterly models, the predicted results of tax incentives for investment are found to vary widely. Differences are traced to critical specifications in investment equations. When appropriately revised investment equations are reestimated the role of tax parameters is much reduced, particularly among the high outliers, and the variance among the models is narrowed decidedly. Full model simulations of revised equations suggest that current and proposed incentives such as the investment tax credit and accelerated depreciation are not cost-effective. Increases in investment approximate only half of static tax losses, and budget deficits widen.     

Telephone number distribution: a snapshot at the beginning of 2000

The United States is depleting its stock of telephone numbers for assignment to telecommunications carriers. If current trends continue the industry could run out of numbers as soon as 2015. There is little empirical examination of this problem in the economics literature. This analysis examines the distribution of telephone numbers across the United States and quantifies the effects of several key factors. The authors examine the effects that population density, competition for local telephone service, wireless telephone service provision and rate exchange area consolidation have on telephone number assignment.     

An Empirical Examination of Entry Patterns in Local Telephone Markets*

In this analysis we examine the market entry patterns of new local telephone companies. We construct and estimate a multinomial logit model using information describing numbering code distribution within local telephone markets and the associated income, density, and regulatory characteristics of these markets. Our findings support the conventional wisdom that facilities-based entry by new local competitors is more likely to occur in large urban telephone markets. In addition, we present evidence that, with the exception of territories served by Ameritech, entry is more likely to occur in Bell Operating Company service territories.     

THE REAL RATE OF U.S. NATIONAL SAVING

The conventional measure of national saving in U.S. accounts does not include saving in consumer durables, public investment, or intangible capital. It reflects a measure of net foreign investment that relates in considerable part to original cost rather than market values. It also does not include real capital gains.
Comprehensive, adjusted measures of national saving are calculated for as many of the years from 1946 to 1989 as relevant components are available. They generally suggest much larger rates of national saving than are usually recognized. They also cast a sharp and substantially different light on the likely effects of policies designed to increase provision for the future.