RULE CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN DISCRIMINATORY AND UNIFORM PRICE AUCTIONS

The auction literature indicates that uncertainty about the value of auctioned goods increases underpricing in discriminatory price auctions. Such uncertainty has a smaller effect on uniform price auctions because the pricing rule aggregates bidders' information. We find that uncertainty resulting from inexperience with an auction mechanism has similar effects. Using initial public offering (IPO) data from Japan and Israel, we find that average underpricing increases temporarily in Japan's discriminatory price auctions after changes in the auction rules, which suggests that bidders reduce their bids in response to uncertainty. Underpricing in Israel's uniform price auctions is not affected by rule changes.     

Vertical Restraints and Market Access

This paper analyzes vertical restraints in relation to market access issues. In Section II we briefly review the recent three major trade conflicts between Japan and the USA in light of vertical restraints. In Section III we review the major policy lessons of the economics literature of vertical restraints, and analyze whether we need a special treatment for vertical restraints abroad for a market access reason. In Section IV we evaluate the policy options towards foreign foreclosure and suggest that nondiscriminatory application of foreign or home competition policy should be the mechanism to address such concern instead of trade policy actions such as voluntary import expansions.     

Belief changes and expectation heterogeneity in buy- and sell-side professionals in the Japanese stock market

We document the determinants of the expectation heterogeneity of stock price forecasters on TOPIX. Monthly panel data collected by QUICK Corporation in the Nikkei Group via surveys is utilized in the process. We examine the determinants of expectation heterogeneity by categorizing our sample into buy-side and sell-side professionals and demonstrate that the co-existence of different types of professionals contributes to the expectation heterogeneity. We show that buy-side and the sell-side professionals, who possess different business goals, differentiate the information contents as well as their interpretations of the same information in their forecasts, contributing to the expectation heterogeneity. In addition, we investigate the interactive expectation formulation of buy-side and sell-side professionals and find that buy-side professionals incorporate the sell side's ideas regarding future stock prices into their own forecasts, but refer exclusively to their own ideas when relating foreign exchange rates to future stock prices. Meanwhile, sell-side professionals tend to utilize buy-side professionals' ideas about future prices in order to improve their research and ingratiate themselves to their clients, that is, to the buy-side professionals. We demonstrate that this interactive expectation formulation also contributes to the generation of the expectation heterogeneity.     

Small Business Credit Scoring and Its Pitfalls: Evidence from Japan

This paper studies the Japanese credit scoring market using data on 2,000 small and medium‐sized enterprises and a small business credit scoring (SBCS) model widely used in the market. After constructing a model for determining a bank's profit maximization, some simulation exercises are conducted, and pitfalls of lending based on SBCS are indicated. The simulation results suggest that the reason why SBCS loan losses occur would be the combination of adverse selection and window‐dressing problems. In addition, omitted variable bias and transparency of financial statements are important.     

Correction to: Accounting Frauds and Main-Bank Monitoring in Japanese Corporations

Journal of Business Ethics -     

Geography and Demography: New Economic Geography With Endogenous Fertility

To explain the links between demographics and economic integration, we construct a new economic geography model with endogenous fertility. Labour mobility across regions results in more people flowing into highly populated regions, but lowers fertility rates there. Finally, regions are divided into one very large region with a higher real wage and another small region with a lower real wage, a higher fertility rate and a supply of workers to the large region. The population growth path resembles a logistic curve in the early phase, but population decreases in the last phase. Economic integration leads to population concentration and decreases population size.     

Contribution-proportional remuneration rule for employee inventions and its effects on effort and investment incentives

The practice of the Japanese court in case of a dispute between the employer and employee regarding the amount of remuneration for an employee invention has been to order that the additional profit from the invention be divided proportionally to their respective input contributions. We show that, if the employer’s investment and employee’s effort are weakly complementary, this rule causes the share effect (excessive incentives on the part of each party to expend investment or effort in order to increase his/her share of the surplus) to dominate the probability effect (insufficient incentives arising from the fact that each party obtains only part of the increase in the expected surplus), and thus leads to excessive investment and effort relative to the joint-payoff-maximising levels. If the court cannot capture the employer’s investment as fully as the employee’s effort, the employer’s investment may be too low compared to the joint-payoff-maximising level.     

The winner–loser effect in Japanese stock returns

This study examines the winner–loser effect using stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) from 1975 to 1997. We uncover significant return reversals dominating the Japanese markets, especially over shorter periods such as 1 month. No momentum effect is observed, however. The 1-month return reversal remains significant even after adjusting for firm characteristics or risk. While the 1-month return reversal is not related to industry classification, it is partially a result of higher future returns to loser stocks with low trading volume. Our results show that investor overreaction may be a possible explanation for the 1-month return reversal in Japan.     

Is corporate governance important for regulated firms’ shareholders?: Evidence from Japanese mergers and acquisitions

This paper compares the reaction of bidders’ stock prices to acquisition announcements by regulated non-financial firms, banks, and unregulated companies in Japan. Results suggest that regulated non-financial firms do not experience a significant stock price response at merger and acquisition (M&A) announcements, although banks’ and unregulated firms’ M&A announcements are regarded favorably by the stock market. Furthermore, the effect of stock option usage and strict boards on the stock price response is weak for regulated non-financial bidders. The results provide additional evidence that regulation results in managerial decisions’ having less influence on shareholder wealth and thereby changes the firm's optimal governance structure. In contrast, the results provide no clear evidence that, for bank bidders, there is a significantly stronger or weaker relationship between governance and the stock price response to an M&A announcement than that of unregulated firms or regulated non-financial firms. The result does not support the view that regulatory monitoring weakens the effect of ordinary governance mechanisms.     

Regional Economic Integration and Article XXIV of the GATT

This paper studies the economic impact of regionalism under the realistic assumptions of constant tariffs and asymmetric bloc formation. As an extension of the Krugman framework, the impact is decomposed into several components, each of which has a clear economic implication. Economic integration definitely worsens outsiders' welfare even if the external tariffs of the bloc are unraised. Bloc members' welfare first increases with the expansion of the bloc; but when about half of the world is united into the bloc, welfare begins to decrease. Simulation results shed some light on the incentive structure of major participants, who face various configurations of regional integration.