EAST ASIAN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: DO THEY PROMOTE GLOBAL FREE TRADE?

Abstract.  We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non-discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self-interest.     

Formation of interdependent regional trade agreements and production networks

Production networks (PNs) can be defined as a determinant of trade partnership. Deepening PNs may generate positive welfare effects and lead to a proliferation in the formation of interdependent regional trade agreements (RTAs). This paper theoretically develops the link between PNs and the formation of RTAs and empirically investigates the link by applying a qualitative choice model estimation methodology (probit) with panel data that covers bilateral country‐pairs among 147 countries between 2000 and 2010. We find that the RTA formation has been strongly driven by deepening PNs between members as well as with third countries. We also find that production network‐driven RTA interdependence is member specific.     

Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non‐discriminatory?

The debates on regional trade arrangements in East Asia focus on whether the RTAs can be net trade creating or diverting, and whether they impede multilateral trade liberalisation or not. This paper attempts to answer these questions by quantitatively estimating the economic impact of possible East Asian free trade areas based on a bilateral gravity model, and evaluating the main characteristics of the proposed FTAs. We find that the trade creation effect expected from the proposed East Asian FTAs such as a China‐Japan‐Korea or an ASEAN plus three (China, Japan, Korea) FTA will be significant enough to overwhelm the trade diversion effect. We also judge that East Asian FTAs will likely be a building block for a global free trade.     

In Search of Optimised Regional Trade Agreements and Applications to East Asia

We quantitatively analyse the trade effects of enhanced trade facilitation with extended gravity equations. Our findings confirm that RTAs comprised of countries equipped with better trade facilitation are more likely to be trade‐creating, less likely to be trade‐diverting, and are thus more likely to lead the world economy toward global free trade. We also find that (i) the traditional gains from shallow integration through eliminating tariff barriers will be greater for South‐South RTAs in East Asia such as an ASEAN‐China RTA, provided that the tariff‐reducing schedule is strictly fulfilled, (ii) the gains from deeper integration through enhancing trade facilitation will be greater for North‐North RTAs in East Asia such as a Japan‐Korea RTA, and (iii) the gains from a combined trade liberalisation strategy through tariff reductions and enhanced trade facilitation will be greater for North‐South RTAs in East Asia such as a China‐Korea and an ASEAN+3 RTA.     

REFORM CREATING REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: APPLICATIONS FOR EAST ASIA

Abstract. We estimate the investment creation and diversion effects of RTAs by using an extended gravity equation focusing on domestic reform as a commitment device for RTA membership. As a case study, we estimate the impact of proposed East Asian RTAs on inward FDI. We find that: (i) reform creating RTA membership, larger market size, better skilled labour and lower trade costs all contribute positively and significantly to inward FDI; and (ii) most of the proposed East Asian RTAs promote intra‐bloc FDI. In particular, both South–North and North–North RTAs prove to be more preferable membership combinations to South–South RTAs in East Asia.     

Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?*

By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi‐country and multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being‐left‐alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub‐and‐spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China–Japan–Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members’ gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC‐level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia‐Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off.     

Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?

This paper investigates why regional trade arrangements (RTAs) are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple RTAs, by interacting with each other, evolve over time. Our empirical analysis, based on an extended gravity model utilising a large panel dataset of 175 countries from 1948 to 1999, shows that RTAs on average increase global trade by raising intra‐bloc trade without damaging extra‐bloc trade. The net trade effects, however, heavily depend on the types of RTA strategic evolution over time, which we categorise as ‘expansionary’ RTAs, ‘duplicate’ RTAs or ‘overlapping’ RTAs. We find that countries excluded from an RTA can benefit more from duplicating a separate RTA than from joining an existing RTA. This result explains why the number of bilateral trade blocs, rather than the membership size of existing RTAs, is currently exploding. We also find that the net trade‐creating effects of RTAs are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping RTAs. This result suggests that it is less likely that the currently proliferating RTAs will completely merge and lead the world economy to global free trade. Our empirical results are robust to controlling for the characteristics of countries that may influence the impact of RTAs.     

Best practices for regional trade agreements

Complicated web of hub-and-spoke type of overlapping free trade agreements (FTAs) can result in high costs for verifying rules of origin (RoO) and trade diversion or suppression effects. This paper attempts to provide best practices for regional trade agreements (RTAs) to enhance global free trade by mitigating these negative effects. By adopting a gravity regression analysis, we quantitatively estimate the trade creation and diversion effects of cumulated RoO (bilateral, diagonal, and full cumulation) for RTAs established under GATT Article XXIV and under the Enabling Clause. We find that (i) RTAs, in general, create trade among members and divert trade from nonmembers, whereby the net trade-enhancing effect is rather weak; (ii) RTAs should be established under the comprehensive GATT Article XXIV, rather than the piecemeal Enabling Clause; and (iii) full cumulation is the most optimal provision in terms of creating the most intra-bloc trade and diverting the least extra-bloc trade. Overall, we strongly suggest that RTAs should employ full cumulation of RoO under GATT Article XXIV.     

Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Patterns of Trade: An Alternative Empirical Approach

Modes of FDI can be clarified by analysing the changing patterns of trade among host, home and third countries. However, most empirical experiments of foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants have been confined to general characteristics of host countries and multinational enterprises' outward investment activities. This may not clearly characterise the specific characteristics of inward FDI in regard to the host country. Thus, we introduce an alternative approach to clarify modes of FDI by investigating the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI. To empirically test whether our approach is applicable, we choose China during the period 1998–2007. We construct a modified gravity equation of bilateral trade while considering spatially lagged interdependence between host, home and third countries. The problem of endogeneity is controlled by applying the system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. Our findings are consistent with results in existing studies on modes of outward FDI to China and prove that our approach in dealing with the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI has wide applicability to all modes of FDI. We discover there is strong evidence for statistically significant complementarity between bilateral trade and inward FDI within the aggregate trade data. As we decompose the aggregate trade data into final and intermediate goods, we find the motivation concerning export‐platform and complex vertical FDI is very significant. In addition, as we separate the bilateral partners into developing partners and developed partners, we find both bilateral and multilateral linkages are much stronger with developing partners.     

Strategic Interests of ASEAN-5 in Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia-Pacific

We examine the strategic interests of ASEAN countries within APEC when forming regional trading arrangements in the pursuit of trade liberalization. Employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the effects of ASEAN's various Free Trade Area arrangements with the U.S., Northeast Asia as well as APEC are analyzed. The impact on ASEAN as a whole as well as for each individual member coutry is examined. A free trade area with the U.S. is likely to benefit the Philippines and Indonesia most.