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Using a computational life cycle model, this article assesses how Social Security affects the welfare of different types of individuals during the Great Recession. Overall, we find that Social Security reduces the average welfare losses for agents alive at the time of the Great Recession by the equivalent of 1.4% of expected future lifetime consumption. Moreover, we show that although the program mitigates some of the welfare losses for most agents, it is particularly effective at mitigating the losses for agents who are poorer and/or older at the time of the shock. 相似文献
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Kamila Cygan-Rehm 《Applied economics》2013,45(28):3503-3522
We study the development of teenage fertility in East and West Germany using data from the German Socioeconomic Panel and from the German Mikrozensus. Following the international literature we derive hypotheses on the patterns of teenage fertility and test whether they are relevant to the German case. We find that teenage fertility is associated with teenage age and education, with the income of the teenager’s family, with migration status, residence in East Germany and aggregate unemployment. Our evidence supports counter-cyclical teenage fertility. 相似文献
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Kamila Cygan-Rehm 《Applied economics letters》2018,25(20):1426-1431
This article investigates the effect of early-childhood citizenship status on secondary school education of immigrant offspring. Given the potential endogeneity of naturalization decision, I instrument for citizenship by using a German reform that introduced exogenous variation in the age of naturalization. The reform provides powerful instruments, significantly raising the likelihood of possessing a German passport in childhood. I find that citizenship status increases the probability of attending the highest school track, which gives access to academic education. The effects are of a similar magnitude for boys and girls. 相似文献
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Using a dynamic equilibrium model of housing tenure choice with fully specified markets for homeownership and rental properties, and endogenous house prices and rents, this paper studies the effect of fundamentals on equilibrium house prices and rents. Lower interest rates, relaxed lending standards, and higher incomes are shown to account for approximately one-half of the increase in the U.S. house price–rent ratio between 1995 and 2006, and to generate the pattern of rapidly growing house prices, sluggish rents, increasing homeownership, and rising household indebtedness observed in the data. 相似文献
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Kamila Tomczak 《Bulletin of economic research》2023,75(1):40-64
The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors responsible for the 2007–2008 crisis development and transmission across the 10 developed European Union (EU) countries. In order to achieve this objective, trade and financial linkages, crisis contagion from the United States and EU countries and countries' internal and external economic vulnerabilities are examined. The results of logistic regression model covering the period from 2002 to 2012 presented in this paper indicate that the transmission of the crisis occurred through contagion from the United States but also from other EU countries. Additionally, the empirical results confirm that high inflation, a decrease in the exchange rate, and a decrease in the US long-term interest rates increased the probability of the 2007–2008 financial crisis. 相似文献
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