Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations

This article investigates the determinants of terrorist groups' failure by applying survival analysis in a discrete‐time specification. Our sample consists of a diverse set of 586 terrorist groups, in which just over 63% end operations (demise) during 1970–2007. We use RAND event data and Jones and Libicki terrorist group data. Findings show that the survival of terrorist groups is bolstered by diversifying attacks, having multiple home bases, locating in the Middle East, locating in a democratic country, and limiting reliance on transnational terrorist attacks. Moreover, larger groups have better survival prospects. Religious fundamentalist terrorist groups face better survival prospects than other terrorist groups. Terrorist groups located in a country with larger tropical territory are less likely to end operations; however, groups based in a landlocked country are more likely to fail.     

Aid for AIDS in Africa

This article applies a two-tiered contribution model to ascertain the determinants of donors?? participation and contribution levels to giving aid for controlling HIV/AIDS in Africa. Bayesian spatial estimates for the two-tiered model are presented for 22 donor countries that gave aid to 48 recipient countries during 2000?C2007. We account for the public nature of HIV/AIDS contributions by including the contributions of other donors as a determinant at both participation and expenditure stages, along with standard determinants of general assistance. Independent variables account for altruistic, political, economic, location, institutional, and environmental factors. Donor??s reaction to spillovers differs in the two stages, thereby supporting the two-tiered estimates over the single-stage Tobit estimates. Aid for AIDS in Africa is motivated by a complex mix of strategic (publicness), altruistic, and donor self-interests. Key factors at both stages include donors?? spillovers, rule of law, past colonial ties, sharing a common language, trade, and people living with HIV. A host of robustness tests are presented.