An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series*

Whether or not shocks persist has important implications in economics. An empirical study investigates this issue for key Australian and US macroeconomic time series. The existence of persistence is investigated by unit root tests and its magnitude estimated by recently proposed techniques. Results from these different approaches are compared.     

Unstable Inflation Targets

This paper studies long‐run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment. When central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated, agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares. Inflation targets can lead agents' beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels. First, implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting. Second, there can be nearly self‐fulfilling inflation, disinflation, or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks. Policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed.     

Fashion: a new paradigm of consumer behaviour

In clothing markets, ‘fashion’ has traditionally been defined as something that is accepted by a sizeable proportion of a market. This paper is based on empirical research amongst over 500 students investigating a variety of dimensions of ‘fashionability’. The findings support the ‘outer-directedness’ of ‘prevailing styles’ but also identify a potentially important set of ‘individualistic’ influences. It is suggested that this indicates the necessity for a redefinition of what is fashionable, and an explanation is offered for the apparent contradictions in current thinking about fashionability.