Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

This paper builds on Part I, where three European and Mediterranean scenarios were introduced. Theses scenarios can be typified as qualitative, integrated narrative storylines that describe three possible directions of future change until 2030. The main purpose of the paper is to summarise the methods and results of a series of stakeholder workshops held in the Guadalentín (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions. Two workshops were organised in both watersheds, employing different methods to develop short-term and long-term future outlooks. During the first workshop an exploratory forecasting methodology was employed. By means of a collage of images, stakeholders constructed three future images linked to three Mediterranean scenarios. In the second workshop, a discussion on the short-term outlook based on current trends was followed by a backcasting exercise. The various methods yielded highly complementary results, with detailed short-term developments, rather general yet highly creative visions of the long-term future, and a set of desirable futures. It is argued that such a mix of methods has increased the quality and comprehensiveness of the results. In any case, these efforts should be but the onset of long-term stakeholder participation.     

Inferring welfare maximizing treatment assignment under budget constraints

This paper concerns the problem of allocating a binary treatment among a target population based on observed covariates. The goal is to (i) maximize the mean social welfare arising from an eventual outcome distribution, when a budget constraint limits what fraction of the population can be treated and (ii) to infer the dual value, i.e. the minimum resources needed to attain a specific level of mean welfare via efficient treatment assignment. We consider a treatment allocation procedure based on sample data from randomized treatment assignment and derive asymptotic frequentist confidence interval for the welfare generated from it. We propose choosing the conditioning covariates through cross-validation. The methodology is applied to the efficient provision of anti-malaria bed net subsidies, using data from a randomized experiment conducted in Western Kenya. We find that subsidy allocation based on wealth, presence of children and possession of bank account can lead to a rise in subsidy use by about 9% points compared to allocation based on wealth only, and by 17% points compared to a purely random allocation.     

On myopia as rationale for social security

It has been argued that “paternalistically motivated forced savings constitutes an important, and to some the most important, rationale for social security retirement systems.” This paper revisits the role played by myopia in generating a theoretical rationale for pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security in dynamically efficient economies. If the competing asset is linear storage and myopic agents are allowed to borrow against future pension benefits, there is no welfare-rationale for PAYG pensions. Sufficiently strong myopia may justify such pensions only if agents cannot borrow against their future pension, but then they are at a zero-saving corner. With enough myopia, co-existence of positive optimal pensions and positive private saving is possible if the return to saving declines with saving, as in a model with a neoclassical technology.     

Motives behind equity holding by banks: Evidence from India

This paper examines the motives behind equity holding by banks in non-financial firms. It has been argued that banks hold equity in firms primarily for two reasons: to support their debt holding or for returns as capital investments. This paper tries to examine which among these two motives drive equity holdings by Development Financial Institutions in India (DFIs). Results indicate that equity holding by DFIs in India is primarily driven by their interest as creditors. In poorly performing firms, equity holding by DFIs is also driven by debt restructuring in firms in the form of conversion of debt to equity. The author would like to thank Subrata Sarkar, Vikas Rawal and an anonymous referee of the journal for their comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Communicating CSR practices – Role of internationalization of emerging market firms

Emerging markets suffer from institutional voids, and in such resource deficient economies, corporate social responsibility is given scant attention. However, when firms from emerging markets globalize, international stakeholders become suspicious about firms’ products, services, and business practices. Grounded in the liability of emergingness and legitimacy theory and using a sample of 134 manufacturing firms from one emerging market, India, this study explores how firms’ international diversification intent and market-seeking motives influence emerging markets’ firms communication of socially responsible activities as an attempt to eliminate illegitimacy. Furthermore, the study reveals that business group affiliation enhances the influence of internationalization on firms’ communication of socially responsible activities.     

Risky debt,jump processes,and safety covenants

The usual assumptions in the continuous-time contingent claims pricing of risky debt are (1) the firm is in default only when the value of its remaining assets falls short of the currently due promised payment and (2) the firm value follows continuous diffusion-process dynamics. It is the joint relaxation of these two simplifying assumptions that motivate this paper in its study of the valuation of risky debt and safety covenants when the firm value follows (possibly) discontinuous sample paths. Explicit solutions are derived and compared to the work of Black and Cox (1976).