Seeking convergence between history and futures research

The objective of this paper is to analyse how much the traditions of history research (HR) and futures research (FR) have in common and how they could assist each other. First, the role of time is analysed. Second, the path dependence theory, strategic decision-making, knowledge management and visionary management are discussed. Examples of the application of the latter in water and sanitation services and their long-term development are shown. Finally, some argumented views are presented on how the convergence between FR and HR could be improved.The key point of this research is the seeming discontinuity between presents, recent pasts and near futures. The traditions of HR probably make it more difficult to assess the effects of strategic decisions on the recent. If more convergence is wanted, the gap should be filled somehow. On the other hand, the core of FR research seems to concentrate more on strategic and visionary horizons while perhaps neglecting the operational horizon of the near future.     

EFFECTS OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON PRODUCTION, INCOMES AND EMPLOYMENT IN FINLAND

This study examines the effects of public expenditure on production activity and private consumption activity. An input-output model with consumption functions connected is used for evaluating the repercussions of public expenditure. Taking both production and consumption repercussions into account, it is concluded that in the year 1965 public expenditure generated 26 percent of domestic incomes and 18 percent of imports. Viewed in terms of the shares of different types of income generated, 72 percent of public expenditure goes to domestic income, and the remaining 28 percent to imports. Forty-five percent of public expenditure returns directly as income to general government. The study also examines the effects of public expenditure by industry and over time (1959 to 1965).     

Engaged,but with what? Objects of engagement in technology-aided B2B customer interactions

ABSTRACT

Using new technologies in customer interactions is a popular way of trying to increase customer engagement. It is, however, unknown how such efforts by marketers’ affect engagement, and particularly to what that engagement relates to. By analysing interview and observation data, the engagement manifestations of customers of a B2B company using virtual-reality technology were studied. The results show that customer engagement can be targeted at not only brands or firms but also the service the firm offers or the technology that enables the service. It is argued that the different objects of engagement can coexist and support each other but engagement with the firm is less susceptible to fluctuations. Marketers should be aware of what triggers customer engagement and what it is targeted at.     

A missing link in modeling : The future of time-use as an illustration

A Theory of Action is formulated based on the intentionality of actions. The transformation rules from the new theory to system dynamics were developed and the methodology was then applied to certain problems of future time-use. The modeling approach used is holistic and it requires a meta-system to system dynamics in order to produce quantitative results.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making

Already two decades ago strategy literature started a discussion on weak signals (H.I. Ansoff, Implanting Strategic Management, Prentice-Hall International, Englewood-Cliffs, NJ, 1984). Currently the weak signals approach is experiencing a renaissance in strategic planning but now either in the context of strategic flexibility or peripheral vision. In this paper we aim, firstly, to present theories describing filters that a weak signal has to pass in the strategy-creation process. Secondly, we present a construction for information filters in the strategy process and prove that the nature of objectives and the method used in environment scanning have a major impact on the outcome. Thirdly, we introduce an application that opens filters for weak signals in the strategy process and thus provides the organization with an opportunity for pro-active decision-making.