On the theory of macroeconomic quasi-equilibria

Conclusion It has been shown that for the Classical System a quasi-equilibrium cannot exist, unless we make the ad hoc assumption of inflexible nominal wages⁸. The equilibrium in the classical regime corresponds to the general competitive equilibrium, and of course the validity of Walras' Law cannot be questioned. At the same time, however, it has been shown that to extend these conclusions to the Keynesian system as well is not justified. The Keynesian system has, in general, a quasi-equilibrium. The model constructed in this paper and the resulting conclusions are significant because the model: (a) Incorporates the Keynesian notion of effective demand, which includes the demand for capital goods (investment) as being performed by a group of people distinct from the consumers (and so, answering Negishi's point, there is a prince in Hamlet!), (b) Unlike other models (like the recent paper by Glustoff), it does not rely on nominal wage rigidity to explain unemployment, but instead, again answering Negishi's remark, it explains rather than postulates why real wages do not adjust in the presence of unemployment so as to eliminate it. (c) It verifies the validity of Clower's proposition that in the Keynesian System Walras' Law holds only in equilibrium. (d) It reconsiles Bent Hansen's original quasi-equilibrium model with the Keynesian proposition of an unemployment equilibrium, against the apparent view of Hansen that to do that would require the assumption of a Phillips curve, a view also shared by Arrow and Hahn, and many others.An earlier version of this paper was presented in the December 1974 meeting of the Econometric Society in San Francisco. The author wishes to thank Prof. R. Clower, Prof. B. Hansen, Prof. S. Black, and Dr. G. Winckler for their valuable comments, but he obviously claims any errors for himself.     

TFP change,output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994–2006)

The present paper estimates Total Factor Productivity (TFP) change for the Russian economy in the time period 1994–2006. It also calculates potential output and output gap using a Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function and a Hodrick–Prescott filter, as well as the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU), and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Capacity Utilization (NAICU) concepts. The results show that despite the severe economic crisis TFP has contributed to strong economic growth in the country after 1998, while the output gap, although negative between 1999 and 2003, has recently become positive. The relationship between output gap and inflation is examined and the results suggest that there is a strong (causal) relationship between output gap and inflation in the Russian economy.     

An essay on the “New” Kaldorian macrodynamics

Conclusion Considering that employment and output are positively related, and that productivity growth and inflation are inversely related, we see that Kaldor, through the hypothesis of embodied technical progress and induced investment, has presented us with the elements of a general theory of stagflation. As such, this Kaldorian theory constitutes the only serious opposition to the various monetarist explanations (most notably Milton Friedman's 1977 Nobel Lecture) of a positively sloped Phillips curve, based on the inflationary expectations mechanism and the notion of a changing natural rate of unemployment. Not so long ago, people were talking about the so-called locomotive theory of export-led growth, with such surplus countries as Germany and Japan, or large economies as the U. S., playing the role of the engine, given that the equally surplus oil-producing countries will also maintain a strong import-demand for industrial output. Fears (perhaps legitimate ones) about inherent inflationary tendencies have caused the abandonment of this approach to pull the world economy from its vicious stagflationary circle. Contrary to the monetarists' view that a recession is needed in order to combat inflation, Kaldor's own theory can serve as a guide to those who, more optimistically, believe or simply hope that investment and output growth is the only longterm weapon against both inflation and unemployment.The importance of the writings of Professor Kaldor, influential as they have proved to be well beyond his immediate Cambridge milieu, cannot be overestimated. He is a truly great economist, one of the few who make economic theory rather than simply repeat established dogmas. All economists will be educated by reading and re-reading his collected essays.     

The Impact of the International Coffee Agreement on Producing Countries

Simulations of a global coffee model incorporating a vintagecapital approach to production are run. Over the recent periodof operation of the International Coffee Agreement's exportquota system, the authors find that the quota system had a stabilizingeffect on world coffee prices. The quotas reduced real exportrevenues for most small exporting countries, but large producersgained. Most small countries gained, however, in terms of riskreduction. If a brief suspension of the quota occurs from timeto time, caused, for example, by adverse weather which resultsin a shortfall in world supply, the quota system works likea buffer stock scheme; on average, producing countries as awhole lose transfer benefits but gain risk benefits.     

Market Structure, Efficiency and Rising Consolidation of the Banking Industry in the Euro Area

Four factors are fundamentally altering the financial landscape in the Euro Area: deregulation, further disintermediation provoked by the common currency and common monetary policy, technological advances and increased competition from non‐bank intermediaries. Faced with the combined pressures of these factors, banks are devising strategies to do business in this new environment. They respond by attempting to improve their efficiency and/or market power through consolidation and balance sheet restructuring. This article examines whether the ongoing process of consolidation should be rationalized on the basis of the benefits of economies of scale and scope or to the attempt of banks to tackle excess capacity problems. Empirical findings reveal a significant effect of efficiency measures on banking profitability indices. Also, we argue that further disintermediation caused by common currency and common monetary policy poses a threat to banks' profitability. Finally, these results have some implications for merger and antitrust policy as well as for supervisory and regulatory practices.     

Estimating semi-parametric output distance functions with neural-based reduced form equations using LIML

Efficiency analysis is an important tool for evaluating firms' performance. This paper introduces a novel approach for measuring technical efficiency (TE) in the case of technologies with multiple outputs which deals with the endogeneity of outputs issue. The proposed approach uses Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the method of Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML). The validity of the proposed approach is illustrated by fitting it to a large US data set for all commercial banks in the 1989–2000 time span. Meanwhile, we compare the proposed approach to the single-equation Translog output distance function and the proposed approach was found to yield very satisfactory results, while dealing with the issue of the endogeneity of outputs.     

Emil Lederer and Joseph Schumpeter on Economic Growth,Technology and Business Cycles

This paper compares Joseph Schumpeter and Emil Lederer with respect to their visions concerning the notions of economic growth, technology and business cycles. Their theoretical investigations in a number of thematic areas seem to converge to similar views. More precisely, both Schumpeter and Lederer regard the capitalist economy as a dynamic system where the introduction of innovations is its distinctive characteristic. In such a system, static analysis based on the concept of equilibrium is useful as an expository device to describe the adjustment mechanisms of the economic system. They also paid attention to the emergence of large oligopolistic firms and considered this development as being interwoven with technological progress. Both economists used similar arguments to emphasize the link between economic development and technological change. In their analyses, Schumpeter and Lederer referred to psychological factors motivating the entrepreneur, in order to explain the forces that set in motion the process of innovation and thus economic development. The concept of technological unemployment is also described in a similar manner by both of them. Regarding the issue of business cycles, Schumpeter and Lederer considered them to be a result of endogenous processes within a capitalist economy. Lederer in his late works, argued in a way analogous to Schumpeter, that economic fluctuations are caused from the disruptions created by innovations, which are introduced discontinuously into the economic system. Conclusively, Schumpeter and Lederer delivered theses which are similar in scope and conclusions probably because they were developed in the same social, political, theoretical and ideological environment and were also well acquainted with each other’s ideas.     

A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises

In this paper, we consider the signals approach as an early-warning-system to detect crises. Crisis detection from a signals approach involves Type I and II errors which are handled through a utility function. We provide a Bayesian model and we test the effectiveness of the signals approach in three data sets: (1) Currency and banking crises for 76 currency and 26 banking crises in 15 developing and 5 industrial countries between 1970 and 1995, (2) costly asset price booms using quarterly data ranging from 1970 to 2007, and (3) public debt crises in Europe in 11 countries in the European Monetary Union from the introduction of the Euro until November 2011. The Bayesian model relies on a vector autoregression for indicator variables, and incorporates dynamic factors, time-varying weights in the latent composite indicator and special priors to avoid the proliferation of parameters. The Bayesian vector autoregressions are extended to a semi-parametric context to capture non-linearities. Our evidence reveals that our approach is successful as an early-warning mechanism after allowing for breaks and nonlinearities and, perhaps more importantly, the composite indicator is better represented as a flexible nonlinear function of the underlying indicators.

     

Tourism expenditure model — a functional planning and policy-making tool

The Tourism Expenditures Model (TEM) is a short-run systems model which at both the national and regional level can provide a detailed analysis of the nature of tourism-related expenditures. The tourism-related sectors covered are transportation, accommodation, meals and beverages, recreation and entertainment and other purchases disaggregated with respect to time, region and economic subsector. The model is intended to help in the evaluation and planning of specific tourism proposals and in the development of the industry as a whole.