The recent reform of European governance: A critical review

This paper investigates whether the recent EU governance reform is a step in the right direction and discusses its ability to restore European financial stability. The authors argue that the reform appears incapable of dealing with the factors responsible for the sovereign debt crisis, and they stress the need for financial sector reforms and sound fiscal policies. To that end, the adoption of national fiscal rules seems capable of dealing with the profligacy of governments and tackling the problem of deficit bias. Regarding the introduction of the new Excessive Imbalance Procedure, this article argues that EU authorities should adopt a symmetric approach instead of the one currently being pursued.     

Tariffs and economic growth in the first era of globalization

Are liberal trade policies good for growth? Sceptics often point to the late nineteenth century as a period when protectionist policies promoted economic development. This apparent blueprint for the benefits of protectionism paradoxically comes from a period that is often described as the first era of globalization. In this paper we reassess the empirical evidence about the relationship between tariffs and growth between 1870 and 1914. Our key findings challenge the idea that in the nineteenth century countries that raised tariffs thereby increased their own growth rate. Using new and improved data and employing a whole portfolio of econometric tests we do not find evidence that increased protectionism raised the rate of individual countries’ growth. While some positive cross-sectional correlation exists between tariffs and growth, this may reflect unobserved country traits rather than a causal relation. There is equally little evidence that other external factors, such as real exchange rates and terms of trade changes, were key drivers of economic performance. A paradox of this first era of globalization is not that free trade was bad for growth; it is that international economic policies seem to have mattered little to countries’ growth trajectories.     

PERSONAL SECTOR WEALTH IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, 1920–56

In the United Kingdom there is a wide range of sources which make it possible to construct a series for components of personal wealth for the period 1920–56. The data are consistent with contemporary estimates produced for specific years in the 1920s and 1930s. They indicate that a stock-market boom and the effects of deflation and low interest rates on the nominal value of the national debt took the wealth/income ratio in the mid-1930s to a level not seen again until the housing boom of the 1980s.     

Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period.     

Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920

This article brings together some of the improvements to GDP estimates from the income side since the publication of Charles Feinstein's 1972 volume National income, expenditure and output of the United Kingdom, 1855–1965. Many of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together, focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income-based estimates for the period 1841–1920. The new data are then used to comment on several features of the late nineteenth-century UK economy, considering both the trend and cyclical path of the economy. The new data, coupled with modern de-trending methods, suggest that there was a long-term slowing of the UK economy from the late nineteenth century, starting from the 1870s. To undertake the trend–cycle decomposition, we employ a wavelets methodology to describe the time–varying features of trends and cycles over this period.     

Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain

What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high-frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.     

Japanese episodic long swings in economic growth

Prior to World War II Japanese economic growth was characterised by episodic ‘long swings,’ low frequency fluctuations in economic growth averaging about 20-25 years in duration. At the aggregate level, these inter-period growth variations dominated both shorter-term fluctuations and longer-term trend acceleration. The paper describes the long swings of the Japanese economy and re-evaluates conventional explanations.     

BILATERALISM IN THE INTERWAR WORLD ECONOMY*

Discriminatory protectionist policies in the 1930s are assumed to have led to a collapse of multilateral trading patterns. This paper examines the trends in bilateralism during the interwar period for a sample of ten countries. The findings show that, with the exception of Germany between 1934 and 1938, the level of bilateralism fluctuated but did not see a significant trend increase in the period of increased protectionism during the 1930s.