THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRADE ON A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: AN ATTEMPTED SYNTHESIS*

The objective of this paper is to reformulate the terms of trade effect within a framework of national accounts in constant prices. The issue has been discussed by Professor R. C. Geary, Dr. G. Stuvel and others. In what follows the author proposes a new formula for deflating the net factor income from abroad and the net lending to the rest of the world. It is shown that the terms of trade effect which follows from the formula be expressed as a synthesis of Geary's and Stuvel's approaches. The author also shows that a similar approach be applied to the construction of the sector production account in constant prices. By formulating an appropriate deflator which is right for deflating factor incomes he concludes that the terms of trade arising from changes in inputs prices relative to output price be closely associated with the term which expresses the effect of productivity changes.     

Optimal money supply in models with endogenous discount factor

This paper studies the Friedman rule for the optimal quantity of money in money in the utility (MIU) and cash–credit models while considering two specifications for the endogenous discount factor. In the first specification, the discount factor depends directly on the utility level. In the second, the discount factor depends on every component of the utility function. We show that under the former specification the Friedman rule is the optimal policy. Under the latter, however, while the Friedman rule is optimal for the MIU model, it is not optimal for the cash–credit model.     

Trade costs, wage rates, technologies, and reverse imports

Abstract .  This paper explores the effects of transport costs, tariffs, and foreign wage rates on the domestic economy in the presence of reverse imports, with special emphasis on inter-firm cost asymmetry in an international oligopoly model. To serve the domestic market, a foreign firm produces in the foreign country, while two domestic firms produce either at home or abroad. Surprisingly, an increase in the foreign wage rate may increase the profits of a firm producing in the foreign country. Even if all firms produce in the foreign country, an increase in the foreign wage rate may improve domestic welfare.     

An Elementary Approach to Approximate Equilibria with Infinitely Many Commodities

We prove the existence of approximate equilibria in a finite exchange economy with a countably infinite number of commodities and nonconvex preferences, when every trader has an excess demand set that is finitely spannable, i.e., that could be covered by a union of its convex subsets in finitely many steps. We show that the bound on the norm of the per capita aggregate excess demand is reciprocally related to the square root of the population. Extensions are also made to the case where countably many commodities are indivisible. The proofs are elementary. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D50, C62, D52.     

Entry Deterrence in a Unionized Oligopoly

We investigate wage determination between an incumbent firm and its labour union under threat from another firm entering its product market. In equilibrium, it may be optimal for a labour union of the incumbent firm to lower its wage demand. This may make it possible for the incumbent firm to maintain a higher employment level, in that the lower wages can help the firm deter the entry of a rival firm. This will yield a higher profit for the incumbent firm and a lower utility level for the labour union compared with those in an equilibrium with no threat of entry.
JEL Classification Numbers: J51, L10     

Hospitality Bankruptcy in United States of America: A Multiple Discriminant Analysis-Logit Model Comparison

This study examines bankruptcy prediction of hospitality firms within U.S. equity markets. The article investigates whether the Logit model or the Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) accurately predict bankruptcy, specifically it attempts to investigate how accurate Logit and MDA models are. Various key financial variables were utilized as predictors and contrasting samples of both bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms for the period 1992–2010 were used. In this analysis Statistical software SPSS 20 was utilized for the analysis. Results show that for the period 1992–2010, the MDA model outperformed the Logit model for overall bankruptcy prediction. Theoretical and practical implications were offered based on the results. The study is critical given the signi?cant number of hospitality enterprises being intensely impacted by the recent economic downturn. Consequently, the hospitality industry in United States demands higher degree of accuracy from bankruptcy prediction models to forecast economic failure.