Econometric Analysis of Managers' Judgements on the Determinants of the Financial Situation in Russia

The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models.     

EXPERIENCES AND PROBLEMS OF THE CIS COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION FROM THE MPS TO THE SNA

This paper reviews the transition of national accounts in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries from the Material Product System (MPS) to the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) and discusses the major problems that still need to be solved in order to improve the quality of their national accounts. It argues that the MPS practice tended to exaggerate growth not because of different concepts, but because of methodological problems such as inadequate deflation due to poor price data and incomplete coverage of the non-observed economy as well as overpricing of new or modified products and institutional flaws that motivated data fabrication by enterprises. However, the heritages of the problems under the MPS, together with the emerging new types of institutional units, new sources of income and market-driven new services, have made the transition difficult.     

In the insurance business risky investments are dangerous: the case of negative risk sums

We investigate models with negative risk sums when the company invests its reserve into a risky asset whose price follows a geometric Brownian motion. Our main result is an exact asymptotic of the ruin probabilities for the case of exponentially distributed benefits. As in the case of non-life insurance with exponential claims, the ruin probabilities are either decreasing with a rate given by a power function (the case of small volatility) or equal to one identically (the case of large volatility). The result allows us to quantify the share of reserve to invest into such a risky asset to avoid a catastrophic outcome, namely the ruin with probability one. We address also the question of smoothness of the ruin probabilities as a function of the initial reserve for generally distributed jumps.     

INTRODUCTION OF THE SNA INTO THE OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

The work on the introduction of the elements of the SNA into the official statistical practice of the former U.S.S.R. began in 1988 when estimates of the GDP using conversion keys were prepared. In 1991 the decision was made to implement the entire SNA gradually on the basis of the international standards. The methodology of compilation of the main accounts was formulated by the Statistical Committcc of the C.I.S. with the assistance of the OECD. It originally drew on the ESA with introduction of elements of the revised SNA and adaption to specific economic processes in the country. It required solution of a number of conceptual and statistical problems referring to the treatment, allocation and valuation of selected activities. The estimates of the main accounts were made for the former U.S.S.R. by sectors and by industries for 1988–90. This project has provided the basis for further work on implementation of the SNA in C.I.S. countries.