Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

政府上网不仅是新的技术工具的获得和经营模式的改变,更重要的是政府要用信息技术向社会提供更有效的服务.税收信息化即是电子技术在税收工作中的具体应用.     

电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.     

三线铁路荷载作用下箱梁桥荷载横向分布系数

文章运用有限元程序对三线铁路预应力混凝土连续箱梁桥进行了模拟,分析了三线铁路荷载作用下箱梁的受力特性及在各种荷载工况下荷载横向分布规律,给出了荷载横向系数的实用值。     

约翰·拉格里奇:活跃于环球的投资家与学者(二)--投资学掀开生活的红盖头

投资!当人们手里握着余钱的时候，多数会口里喊着或心里念着：投资!——特别是在这个时代的中国，财富神话每时每刻都在上演，渴望在市场上逮住机会的人们，对于投资，是如此的热衷!但是“真理”掌握在少数人手里。这个“真理”，就是投资之道；那些近年赚得盆满钵盈的机构投资和管理们，他们运作大资金的智慧，往往能为我们的“投资”之道点燃一把火。[编按]     

"二次剥离"撩开"森豪"骗贷黑幕

2004年10月,审计署武汉特派办在对信达资产管理公司审计时,正值该公司通过公开竞标,收购了中国银行、中国建设银行和交通银行改制重组中"第二次剥离"的不良资产.     

基于博弈视角的供应链伙伴关系研究

科学技术的飞速发展、经济的全球化以及竞争的日益激烈，使得企业要想在市场上取得成功，就必须和供应商、客户建立紧密的伙伴关系，通过整体协作增强各节点企业的竞争力。对于供应链伙伴关系，可以从交易费用、资源观、博弈论等到不同视角进行研究，本文将从博弈的视角，通过企业间博弈的不同阶段，包括囚徒困境、鹿的陷阱以及单方承诺三个阶段，对供应链内企业间的伙伴关系进行探讨，揭示其内在规律。     

入世对中国期货市场发展的优势分析

经济全球化的要求使各国经济必须融入世界经济运行的大循环。作为融入世界经济的重要渠道，入世将会极大地影响中国的金融市场。期货市场作为金融市场的一个有机组成部分。也将深受影响。它将通过入世的宏观与微观效应，获得进一步的发展。