Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

经济管理类专业计算机相关课程的设置与开放实验教学的研究

文章根据新形势下经济管理类专业对计算机及相关技术的特殊要求,讨论了计算机相关课程的设置,提出了实验教学改革的想法,即如何构建和管理开放实验室。     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

政府上网不仅是新的技术工具的获得和经营模式的改变,更重要的是政府要用信息技术向社会提供更有效的服务.税收信息化即是电子技术在税收工作中的具体应用.     

电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.     

约翰·拉格里奇:活跃于环球的投资家与学者(二)--投资学掀开生活的红盖头

投资!当人们手里握着余钱的时候，多数会口里喊着或心里念着：投资!——特别是在这个时代的中国，财富神话每时每刻都在上演，渴望在市场上逮住机会的人们，对于投资，是如此的热衷!但是“真理”掌握在少数人手里。这个“真理”，就是投资之道；那些近年赚得盆满钵盈的机构投资和管理们，他们运作大资金的智慧，往往能为我们的“投资”之道点燃一把火。[编按]     

中国和新加坡产业内贸易与规模经济关系的协整分析

中国和新加坡产业内贸易与规模经济存在着一种长期的均衡关系,新加坡生产企业的规模经济对产业内贸易的推动作用大于中国,中国和新加坡生产企业的规模经济与产业内贸易存在单向因果关系,即规模经济促进产业内贸易.     

"二次剥离"撩开"森豪"骗贷黑幕

2004年10月,审计署武汉特派办在对信达资产管理公司审计时,正值该公司通过公开竞标,收购了中国银行、中国建设银行和交通银行改制重组中"第二次剥离"的不良资产.     

科技公益创业研究的现状与思考

本文对科技公益创业研究的重要性以及目前研究现状进行了分析,并提出进一步研究的内容和思路,具体包括:科技公益创业重要性的分析、科技公益创业维度及其概念的界定、科技公益创业理论框架与创业、公益创业以及一般的科技创业理论框架的差异分析、科技公益创业绩效测评体系研究、国外科技公益创业的成功与失败案例分析等等。