Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference

We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection.     

资本外逃的经济效应与应对政策选择研究

资本外逃是一个复杂的经济问题,是由多种原因造成的,并会给一国经济发展带来不可估量的风险和损失。基于此,论文梳理了资本外逃的研究现状,提出了资本外逃所产生的经济效应,在此基础上,提出了资本外逃的政策选择,为一国在治理资本外逃时提供了政策选择和借鉴。     

新能源发电企业资产管理措施研究

新能源行业发展速度加快,其中新能源发电企业是现阶段该行业发展的重要组成部门,企业的管理模式和体制是保证行业稳定发展的关键因素.在新能源发电企业中拥有大量多种不同类型的资产,资产管理是影响企业经济效益提高的主要因素.基于此,本文分析了新能源发电企业的资产特点,探讨影响新能源发电企业资产管理的因素以及具体策略,以期可以为企业发展提供有效参考.     

基于GA-BP神经网络的通信卫星效能评估模型研究

卫星通信作为未来联合行动的重要通信手段,其运用效能对联合行动的影响重大.该研究以通信卫星运用效能研究为切入点,通过对关键问题进行树状分解,建立了包含35个指标的通信卫星运用效能评估指标体系,基于GA-BP(Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation)神经网络方法,构建了通信卫星运用效能评估模型.通过实际卫星工作过程中产生的数据对所建立的模型进行了验证,证明了该模型能够有效地评估通信卫星的运用效能.     

Price dynamics in corn cash and futures markets: cointegration,causality, and forecasting through a rolling window approach

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper examines the causal structure among the daily corn futures and seven cash price series from Midwestern states from January 3, 2006, to March...     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).     

The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.     

社会地位来源对欺骗行为的影响——来自实验室实验的证据

如何减少欺骗是当前中国社会普遍面临的问题。文章结合社会地位理论和自我概念理论，研究了减少欺骗行为的机制。我们利用实验室实验，区分先赋性和自致性两种地位获取方式，用欺骗博弈来检验不同社会地位来源对欺骗决策的影响。结果发现，个人通过真实劳动获得的自致性社会地位可以显著减少欺骗行为；由于幸运得到的先赋性社会地位不能减少欺骗行为。同时，非物质收益的社会地位比赋予物质收益的社会地位更有效减少欺骗行为，说明物质收益是对市场化自我概念的提醒，从而无助于降低欺骗。研究结果在剔除策略性行为后依然稳健。研究有效验证了Mazar et al.（2008）关于影响欺骗行为的自我概念内在决定机制，并对各类组织提升诚信管理具有重要借鉴意义。