道歉的小字条

尚莫和胡克又吵架了。 这一次，大度的胡克不再让步，转身就往家走，留下火爆睥气的尚莫独自赴宴。 晚上11时，尚莫尽兴而归。开门时．她看到门上贴着一张纸条：“你必须向我道歉!…‘没门!”尚莫一把扯下字条。     

Announcements

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between nonrespondent, self selection bias on mail return surveys from two visitor groups in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. The authors suggest that engagement in a specific recreation activity at a specific location may be a significant criterion for defining a population as homogeneous. This is important because a homogeneous population is less susceptible to nonrespondent bias in mail return surveys. A brief contact instrument was given to individuals as they left the Sugarlands Visitor Center and as they entered the Roaring Forks Motor Nature Trail. Upon completing the contact survey, participants were asked to complete and return, by mail, a detailed visitation questionnaire. The contact survey was recoded to reflect “returned”; and “not returned”; the mailed survey. A chi‐square analysis was used to determine if there was an association between respondents’ returning or not returning the mailed survey and their responses to the brief contact instrument. No significant association was found. Based upon these and other findings, the authors suggest that determinations of nonrespondent bias should be made before detailed follow‐up mail survey procedures are initiated.     

The self-reinforcing dynamics of economic insecurity and obesity

This article models the dynamic effects of economic insecurity on body weight. Using Australian panel data, we infer an individual’s level of economic insecurity as a function of exposure to various financial risks and employ regression equations to explore its effect upon current period body mass index (BMI) scores. Estimates reveal that a sustained standard deviation increase in economic insecurity raises an individual’s BMI at a rate of approximately 0.35 units per year. Quantile regressions are then used to estimate the sensitivity of body weight to insecurity at different percentiles of the distribution and we find that persons who are overweight and obese are much more seriously affected. This implies that shocks that make individuals more financially vulnerable can generate harmful self-sustaining cycles of risk and weight gain. We also model the dynamics of insecurity and show that it is a persistent phenomenon for persons with high levels of exposure and lower incomes. This finding indicates that persons of lower socio-economic status are more likely to encounter vicious cycles of increasing insecurity and obesity, which partially explains why weight-related health problems are unusually highly concentrated amongst these individuals.     

Do long-term swings in the dollar affect estimates of the risk premia?

Foreign exchange returns exhibit behavior difficult to reconcilewith standard theoretical models. This article asks whetherthe recent findings of long swings in exchange rates betweenappreciating and depreciating periods affect estimates of theforeign exchange risk premium. We demonstrate how the 'pesoproblem' introduced by expected shifts in exchange rate regimescan affect inferences about the risk premium in at least twoways: (1) it can make the foreign exchange risk premium appearto contain a permanent disturbance when it does not; and (2)it can induce bias in the foreign exchange return regressionssuch as in Fama (1984).     

Problems and training needs of small business in Transkei

This note reports the findings of a survey of the problems and training needs of 121 small business owner‐managers in Transkei The average response rate was 83 per cent, with 63 per cent of the towns achieving a response rate of over 70 per cent Retailers made up the largest part of the sample (45 per cent). It was ascertained that the owner‐managers experienced management problems and that existing training was not meeting their needs.