用马斯洛需求层次理论对“炫耀经济”的分析

一、“炫耀经济”的由来。自从凡勃伦在1899年出版了《有闲阶级论》以来，“炫耀消费”逐渐引起了社会的注意，“炫耀消费理论”从而也慢慢发展起来，而如今为满足“炫耀”这一心理需求而进行的生产、服务等各种经济活动越来越多，于是“炫耀经济”就这样形成了。凡勃伦认为，用有意脱离生产活动来表现自己拥有财富和权力的有闲阶级的消费就是炫耀消费。他把炫耀消费定义为这样一种类型的社会行为，即通过消费让他人明了消费者的金钱力量、     

Words that shake traders : The stock market's reaction to central bank communication in real time

This paper investigates the effects of Federal Reserve's decisions and statements on U.S. stock and volatility indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and VIX) using a high-frequency event-study analysis. I find that both the surprise component of policy actions and official communication have statistically significant and economically relevant effects on equity indices, with statements having a much greater explanatory power of the reaction of stock prices to monetary policy. For instance, around 90% of the explainable variation in S&P 500 is due to the surprise component of Fed's statements. This paper also shows that equity indices tend to incorporate FOMC monetary surprises within 40 min from the announcement release. Finally, I find that these results are robust along several dimensions. In particular, I consider different estimators, such as the Generalized Empirical Likelihood, and I extend the sample to include the recent period of heightened financial stress. This sensitivity analysis corroborates that central bank communication about its future policy intentions is a key driver of stock returns.     

Capital–skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of Social Security Reform

This paper analyses the general equilibrium implications of reforming pay-as-you-go pension systems in an economy with heterogeneous agents, human capital investment and capital–skill complementarity. It shows that increasing funding, by raising savings, delivers in the long run higher physical and human capital and therefore higher output, but also higher across-group wage and income inequality. It also shows that the general equilibrium effects induced by this reform affect groups' sizes in a way that the higher across-group inequality generated by more funding goes with a larger share of the population against redistribution.     

Public-Choice Analysis of a New International Organization: The International Sea-Bed Authority

The usefulness of the public-choice approach for a better understanding of international organizations can be demonstrated by applying it to the analysis of the structure and functions of a new international organization, the International Sea-Bed Authority, established in 1994, after two decades of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations, with the aim to control the oceans' mineral resources beyond the limits of national jurisdictions (which have been proclaimed by the U.N. Assembly common heritage of mankind). First, the reasons for establishing this organization, whose basis is the common heritage of mankind nature of ocean resources, are examined under two aspects: 1) definition and protection of property rights; 2) environmental control of sea-bed mining activities. Secondly, the organization's decisionmaking system is presented, including such features as the assembly, council with chamber voting, finance committee with decision by consensus, features that balance the voting power of members and protect those countries that bear the financial responsibility for the budget. Finally, some comments are offered about more general aspects of the theory of international organizations: the bureaucracy (and diplomacy) of these organizations as well as the interdependence among international organizations, which opens the way to forms of international logrolling and makes it advisable for countries not to exit from these organizations, even when they have no primary interest in them.     

再制造系统生产计划研究的现状与展望

首先给出了再制造系统的一般框架,总结了影响再制造生产计划制定的不确定性因素,进而通过借鉴企业资源计划系统的计划框架给出了再制造系统生产计划的一般层次结构,从研究问题和研究方法两个方面总结了再制造系统生产计划的研究成果,最后指出了进一步的研究方向。     

中国国民经济总量与房地产业的关系研究

房地产业在国民经济中保持"波动型"上升态势,具有支柱产业的特征;房地产业的开发投资所发挥的整体作用与国民经济总量密切相关,房地产投资不能离开土地等要素而单方面发挥作用;房地产业受到国民经济总量增长的带动,且不能缺少资金的支持。总之,房地产业与国民经济总量的波动具有很强的一致性。     

Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words

This paper evaluates the predictive power of different information sets for the European Central Bank (ECB) interest-rate-setting behaviour. We employ an ordered probit model, i.e. a limited dependent variable framework, to take into account the discreteness displayed by policy rate changes. The results show that the forecasting ability of standard Taylor-type variables, such as inflation and output gap, is fairly low both in-sample and out-of-sample, and is comparable to the performance of the random walk model. Instead by using broader information sets that include measures of core inflation, exchange rates, monetary aggregates and financial conditions, the accuracy of the forecasts about ECB future actions substantially improves. Moreover, ECB rhetoric considerably contributes to a better understanding of its policy reaction function. Finally, we find that that the ECB has been fairly successful in educating the public to anticipate the overall future direction of its monetary policy, but has been less successful in signalling the exact timing of rate changes.     

对生态旅游的若干重要认识

生态旅游已成为世界和我国旅游业的一个亮点。但目前有相当一部分的决策者、开发者、经营者和绝大部分旅游者对生态旅游存在着一些认识误区,甚至简单地把自然观光旅游换个标签摇身一变,就成了时髦的“生态旅游”产品。这种认识误导造成的行为误导将会带来生态破坏的无穷后患。本文强调指出了生态旅游的非大众化、高成本、高附加值和高知识含量。文中还对“生态旅游”的构词内涵以及世界旅游界中最新出现的“遗产旅游”的概念进行了学术上的剖析和比较。