债务违约、社会责任与政府支持

转型期中国，地方国有企业作为地区经济发展的一股中坚力量，当其发生债务违约时，作为实际控制人的地方政府究竟是否愿意提供支持，会优先选择哪些企业提供支持，政府的支持行为是否会影响到信贷资源的配置效率呢?为得到验证，文章选取2007-2016年沪深A股地方国有上市企业作为研究样本，实证分析了地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府的支持行为及其对信贷资源配置效率的影响。研究结论表明：第一，地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府会提供更多的"支持"，且支持额度与债务违约额呈显著正相关关系；第二，债务违约前，承担了更多社会责任（环保投资、捐赠以及就业等）的地方国企，在债务违约后可相应地获得更多的地方政府支持；第三，违约企业，尤其是得到更多政府支持的违约企业可获得更多的信贷资源，而其经营业绩却往往更差。由此表明政府干预一定程度上降低了信贷资源配置效率。     

Hi-tech start-ups: legitimacy challenges and funding dynamics

Studies on the legitimacy challenges faced by hi-tech start-ups are still scarce, leaving room for research, and policymaking debate. Legitimacy issues may become difficult to face for hi-tech firms in comparison with other start-ups, because they work in an extreme environment where the technological challenges are at the edge of the scientific possibility. The paper proposes a conceptual model to grasp the relevance of three legitimacy drivers of the hi-tech start-ups for investment decisions. We investigated the ability of 30 hi-tech start-up firms to obtain financial resources from the US investors, employing a set-theoretic approach and carried out fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Our findings clarify that the funding decisions of US investors are driven by the location of headquarter and R&D of hi-tech start-ups and by the educational experience of the founders. Our study has significant theoretical, practical, and policymaking implications.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

Competitive equilibria with limited enforcement

We show how to decentralize constrained efficient allocations that arise from enforcement constraints between sovereign nations. In a pure exchange economy these allocations can be decentralized with private agents acting competitively and taking as given government default decisions on foreign debt. In an economy with capital these allocations can be decentralized if the government can tax capital income as well as default on foreign debt. The tax on capital income is needed to make private agents internalize a subtle externality. The decisions of the government can arise as an equilibrium of a dynamic game between governments.     

Price-Wage Dynamics and Inflation in Socialist Economies: Empirical Models for Hungary and Poland

This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation intransitional socialist economies, with reference to recent experiencein Hungary and Poland. A simple inflation model is centeredon the transmission process and on the short-run dynamics ofinflation. Further incorporating a number of features specificto socialist economies and working with quarterly data, dynamicprice and wage equations are estimated. The estimated equationsallow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreignprices and domestic factors in propagating inflation. Foreignprices matter, but developments on the cost side are criticalin relating exogenous, policy-driven adjustments to the pricelevel to increases in the rate of inflation. The absence ofconventional market-based, equilibrating mechanisms requiresthat nominal anchors, particularly wage restraints, featureprominently in any stabilization program adopted by reformingsocialist economies.     

风险税务筹划决策方法探讨

随着税务筹划理论与实务的研究与发展,风险已经成为人们在税务筹划决策中关注的重要因素之一.对涉及风险的税务筹划,筹划者需要重点解决两大问题:第一,税务筹划风险的度量问题;第二,恰当地选择风险税务筹划决策方法.关于第一个问题,我们曾在《风险税务筹划方案的衡量与选择》(经济与管理研究,2005.9)一文中进行过探讨.本文将集中探讨风险税务筹划决策方法问题,即运用风险型决策方法解决风险税务筹划决策问题.