Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone

Recent breakthroughs in the theory of exchange rate target zones have not been followed by similar contributions on the empirical side. The drift adjustment method of evaluating the credibility of a target zone has become common practice. However, the estimates of the expected rate of depreciation inside the band do not model knowledge of the band in the agents' information set. In this paper, a rational expectations limited-dependent variable method to estimate the expected rate of depreciation is used to remedy this weakness. In the case of the franc-mark target zone with daily data covering a 4-year period, we show that expected rates of devaluation of the order of 2.5% were still present in the early 1990s. Their reappearance in the autumn of 1992 may thus not be surprising.     

A multidimensional analysis of poverty in China from 1991 to 2006

Most studies have reported non negligible improvements for China in terms of poverty during the last three decades. However, this result is potentially hampered by two limitations. First, it may be contingent to the specific choices made regarding the poverty line and the poverty indices used for the analysis. As a consequence, it may collapse if one uses alternative poverty lines or poverty measures. Second, it results from a focus on the sole monetary aspects of poverty. As income does not cover all facets of well-being and since the relationship between these two concepts are quite fuzzy, it may be worth using a broader view of well-being, hence opting for a multidimensional approach of poverty analysis. In the present paper, these two issues are addressed using multidimensional stochastic dominance procedures on the joint distribution of income, education and health in seven Chinese provinces.     

Smallholders download and share videos from the Internet to learn about sustainable agriculture

Of 1,211 farmers and their representatives registered on www.accessagriculture.org, 142 participated in an on-line survey in November 2017, designed to learn farmer’s opinions of Access Agriculture, an NGO which hosts a digital platform where anyone can watch or download videos and other information for free. These farmer learning videos all convey practical information on sustainable agricultural innovations, to encourage farmer experiments. Previous experience showed that smallholders liked having their own copy of videos (e.g. on DVD), but this study showed that farmers are now starting to find their own way to the internet to pro-actively search for information. Although some farmers learn about on-line videos by social contacts, most of the farmers found the videos on www.accessagriculture.org by surfing the web. This suggests that limitations of reaching farmers with traditional forms of video distribution (e.g. DVDs and village screenings) will be partly overcome by the Internet. Youth have become the new information brokers for communities, as elders may lack the digital technology skills needed to use the Internet to get agricultural information. To share videos with other community members, youth will benefit from additional tools, such as an app, to allow easy download and sharing with limited data consumption.     

Not all high-alexithymia individuals are risk-takers: private self-consciousness moderates the relationship between alexithymia and risk-taking behaviours

This article concerns the influence which alexithymia exerts on risk-taking. In particular, alexithymia is seen as a factor which encourages risk-taking as it allows high-alexithymia individuals to feel emotions which are sufficiently intense to compensate for their deficit of emotional awareness. In this connection, we make the hypothesis that alexithymia’s influence is moderated by private self-consciousness (SC). This is because private SC increases the likelihood that high-alexithymia individuals become aware of their risk-taking tendency and that this tendency is discrepant with their pro-safety standards (‘putting someone in danger is bad’) or self-schemas (‘I am a responsible person’). Thus, private SC is likely to enable and motivate them to consciously regulate their behaviour in a safer direction. This hypothesis was empirically tested by a questionnaire amongst 372 French drivers, whose SC, alexithymia, as well as their current adoption of eight risky behaviours (with a more detailed analysis of speeding). The use of conditional process analyses reveal no main effects of alexithymia and private SC but strong interaction effects, while controlling for other predictors. More precisely, when private SC is low high-alexithymia individuals break more the speed limits and adopt more frequently risky behaviours than low-alexithymia drivers. Conversely, when private SC is high, they are less risk-prone. As practical implication, we recommend the use of techniques increasing private SC amongst high-alexithymia persons.     

Information Transmission between Mature and Emerging Equity Markets During Normal and Crisis Periods: An Empirical Examination

In this paper, we examine the price discovery and volatility spillovers between eight mature market economies (MMEs) and eight emerging market economies (EMEs) from January 2003 to July 2014, covering three sub-periods—prior to the 2007–09 global financial crisis (GFC), during the crisis, and post-crisis. The results of price discovery indicate that MMEs lead EMEs in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. All MMEs are cointegrated with China in the pre-crisis period but not in the post-crisis period. Dynamic cointegration results reconfirm our findings from Johansen’s co-integration test. The asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC-GARCH) coefficients suggest a regional pattern among MMEs and EMEs, except in the case of European MMEs with South Africa. Employing BEKK-GARCH model, we find that volatility spillovers of MMEs with China and of Italy with EMEs weakened in the post-crisis period as compared to the pre-crisis period implying that the GFC damaged the information transmission process, particularly for China and Italy. While China is a large economy with strong trade linkages with the rest of the world, Italy is one of the larger European economies which was in relatively greater distress during the EDC. The findings have implications for policy makers and investors.

     

Bank liquidity creation: A new global dataset for developing and emerging countries

Review of World Economics - The pre-Global Financial Crisis build-up, followed by the post-crisis collapse, in bank liquidity creation in developed countries is well-documented (Berger and Bowman,...     

Technical and Scale Efficiencies for Chinese Rural Credit Cooperatives: A Bootstrapping Approach in Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper uses Markov-switching techniques to examine the presence of different market conditions on the Shanghai A-share market since the start of active trading in the mid-1990s. The originality of the paper lies in the identification of three contrasting regimes: a speculative market, a bull market and a bear market. Overall, the ‘Casino’ character of the Chinese stock market is the main feature that is substantiated by the present paper. However, the bull market regime is always a buffer zone between the other two regimes. After early 1997, an investor with a weekly horizon most of the time finds herself in the bear market and makes capital losses. Only during very short periods of ‘luck’ does she make substantial capital gains, which on average will compensate her for the losses.     

An introduction: the challenges of the Chinese electricity industry and its reform

This introduction is to highlight comprehensively the Chinese electricity industry for issues related to the institutional reform, capacity growth, pricing regime, technology development, supply structure and new investment in upgrading electric power grids. Through reviews of statistics and documentaries, we provide a generally updated understanding of the current development and reform of China’s electric power industry, which is one strategic focus of the Chinese Government for its further reform in the energy sector.     

Tax policies and agency costs

We show that when large corporations are subject to a different tax system than smaller firms, the agency cost of under- and overinvestment is significantly altered. In contrast to the findings in the literature, the gap between the first- and second-best investment trigger prices do not move in lockstep with variations in the corporate tax rate, as in the case of a linear tax system. We show that the gap can either widen or shrink, depending on the tax policy design and regime. In addition, we find that the agency cost under a progressive tax regime is considerably larger than the agency cost under a regressive tax regime when equityholders have to bear all the investment costs. These results are reversed when managers have the ability to issue additional debt to finance the firm's expansion and transfer part of the investment costs to bondholders.