Negotiation support using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a flexible methodology for systematically studying strategic conflicts in the real world, and is therefore a natural tool for negotiation support. The basic definitions underlying the graph model are reviewed, and the techniques for analysis and interpretation are discussed. The modeling and analysis of a case study, an international trade negotiation concerning the export of Canadian softwood lumber to the United States, are used to demonstrate the practical application of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution as a negotiation support tool. The modeling and analysis is carried out using the GMCR software system. The ability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to provide insights and advice to negotiators is emphasized.     

Matrix Representation of Conflict Resolution in Multiple-Decision-Maker Graph Models with Preference Uncertainty

Explicit matrix representations of solution concepts in a graph model of a multiple-decision-maker conflict with preference uncertainty are developed. In a graph model, the relative preferences of each DM over the available states are crucial in determining which states are stable according to any stability definition (solution concept). Unfortunately, it is often difficult to obtain accurate preference information in practical cases, so models that allow preference uncertainty can be very useful. In this work, stability definitions are extended to apply to graph models with this feature. The extension is easiest to implement using the matrix representation of a conflict model, which was developed to ease the coding of logically-defined stability definitions. Another benefit of matrix representation is that it facilitates modification and extension of the definitions.     

Coalition Analysis in Group Decision Support

GMCR II, a decision support system based on the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, now contains an algorithm for Coalition Analysis to alert users that certain decision-makers would find it both feasible and beneficial to co-ordinate their actions. The theory and implementation of Coalition Analysis in GMCR II are discussed and illustrated.     

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.     

An Integer Programming Approach to Solving the Inverse Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Two Decision Makers

Group Decision and Negotiation - Operational algorithms for solving the inverse problem for the graph model for conflict resolution are presented for the case of two decision makers (DMs) under a...     

Strategic Investigations of Water Conflicts in the Middle East

Comprehensive strategic analyses are carried out for three connected water conflicts that occurred along the Euphrates River in 1975, 1990, and 1998. The objective is to gain insight into the causes and resolutions of these disputes, and to learn how similar situations can be effectively managed in the future. All three conflicts involve Turkey, the upstream country of both the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, and one or both of Syria and Iraq, which lie downstream. The analysis will demonstrate the importance to conflict resolution of coalitions and of third-Party interventions.     

Strategy,Complexity and Cooperation: The Sino-American Climate Regime

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is applied to a potential climate negotiation between the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in order to gain strategic insights into how a successful agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could be reached. In light of the failure of many nations to meet their expected Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets and the lack of involvement of the world’s greatest emitters of airborne pollutants, the USA and PRC, there is a need to determine successful strategies for combating climate change. The issues surrounding the potential implementation of a bilateral agreement between the USA and PRC are systematically analyzed. Information gathered about the decision makers, options and preferences within the potential negotiations is utilized to create a valid conflict model which is used as a basis for carrying out strategic analyses. Moreover, a novel method is implemented within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain insights into the impact of attitudes on these negotiations. The strategic findings reflect reasonably well what actually occurred in November 2014 when the USA and PRC negotiated a bilateral deal.     

Decision making under conditions of conflict

A real-world application is employed to explain three general types of decision situations that can arise under conditions of conflict. In addition, meaningful connections and relationships among these areas of decision making are clearly pointed out. To permit useful decision technologies to be employed by practitioners for better understanding and for resolving a variety of actual decision problems, a range of flexible decision support systems is discussed. Subsequently, interesting research developments contained in the upcoming sequence of 12 articles on decision making under conflict are summarized and compared. The research articles not only present unique approaches to decision making involving multiple participants, each of whom may have multiple objectives, but suggest a variety of challenging research problems to be investigated in the future.