Matrix Representation of Conflict Resolution in Multiple-Decision-Maker Graph Models with Preference Uncertainty

Explicit matrix representations of solution concepts in a graph model of a multiple-decision-maker conflict with preference uncertainty are developed. In a graph model, the relative preferences of each DM over the available states are crucial in determining which states are stable according to any stability definition (solution concept). Unfortunately, it is often difficult to obtain accurate preference information in practical cases, so models that allow preference uncertainty can be very useful. In this work, stability definitions are extended to apply to graph models with this feature. The extension is easiest to implement using the matrix representation of a conflict model, which was developed to ease the coding of logically-defined stability definitions. Another benefit of matrix representation is that it facilitates modification and extension of the definitions.     

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.     

An Integer Programming Approach to Solving the Inverse Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Two Decision Makers

Group Decision and Negotiation - Operational algorithms for solving the inverse problem for the graph model for conflict resolution are presented for the case of two decision makers (DMs) under a...     

Coalition Analysis in Group Decision Support

GMCR II, a decision support system based on the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, now contains an algorithm for Coalition Analysis to alert users that certain decision-makers would find it both feasible and beneficial to co-ordinate their actions. The theory and implementation of Coalition Analysis in GMCR II are discussed and illustrated.     

Negotiation support using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a flexible methodology for systematically studying strategic conflicts in the real world, and is therefore a natural tool for negotiation support. The basic definitions underlying the graph model are reviewed, and the techniques for analysis and interpretation are discussed. The modeling and analysis of a case study, an international trade negotiation concerning the export of Canadian softwood lumber to the United States, are used to demonstrate the practical application of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution as a negotiation support tool. The modeling and analysis is carried out using the GMCR software system. The ability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to provide insights and advice to negotiators is emphasized.     

Integrating Uncertain Preferences into Status Quo Analysis with Applications to an Environmental Conflict

An algorithm is put forward to conduct status quo analysis when preference uncertainty exists for at least one decision maker (DM) in a strategic conflict. This research integrates into a unified framework two recent expansions of the graph model for conflict resolution, preference uncertainty and status quo analysis. Both of these developments enhance the applicability of the graph model, preference uncertainty by accommodating uncertainty in DMs' preferences and status quo analysis by addressing the dynamics of conflict. The combination of preference uncertainty and status quo analysis improves the flexibility of the graph model in both modelling and analysis. A new model of an environmental conflict is analyzed to demonstrate how the new algorithm can be applied.     

Decision making under conditions of conflict

A real-world application is employed to explain three general types of decision situations that can arise under conditions of conflict. In addition, meaningful connections and relationships among these areas of decision making are clearly pointed out. To permit useful decision technologies to be employed by practitioners for better understanding and for resolving a variety of actual decision problems, a range of flexible decision support systems is discussed. Subsequently, interesting research developments contained in the upcoming sequence of 12 articles on decision making under conflict are summarized and compared. The research articles not only present unique approaches to decision making involving multiple participants, each of whom may have multiple objectives, but suggest a variety of challenging research problems to be investigated in the future.