Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

人民币升值后，我国银行业如何应对

人民币升值的真正含义 7月21日，中国人民银行正式宣布了人民币汇率制度改革的消息。顷刻间，市场舆论对此消息做了最有价值的简化，即“人民币升值了”，实际上，这种说法只是过度强调了改革的其中一项，也是最表面的一项。     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

论马克思"跨越卡夫丁峡谷"思想的中国化

马克思关于“跨越资本主义制度卡夫丁峡谷”思想对东方落后国家在一定的社会历史条件下“跨越资本主义制度卡夫丁峡谷”而进入社会主义具有重要的理论指导意义。列宁把这个理论与俄国具体实际相结合使之俄国化；中共三代领导集体把这个理论与中国具体实际相结合使之中国化，并使“跨越资本主义制度卡夫丁峡谷”在中国由可能一步步走向现实。     

现代企业制度下的内部控制机制研究

内部控制是企业为了提高会计信息质量，保护资产的安全和完整，确保有关的法律法规和规章制度的贯彻执行而制定和实施的一个控制系统。本文从我国企业内部控制中存在的问题，针对这些问题提出了相应的对策。     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

政府上网不仅是新的技术工具的获得和经营模式的改变,更重要的是政府要用信息技术向社会提供更有效的服务.税收信息化即是电子技术在税收工作中的具体应用.     

电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.     

论我国农业区域结构调整

我国农业区域结构中存在结构趋同，比较优势不能发挥，资源环境破坏严重等问题，产生这些问题的主要原因是市场经济不发达，宏观调控体系不健全等。这对全国农业统一大市场的形成，对建立社会主义市场体系是极炒利的。我们必须对我国农业区域结构进行合理调整。     

特色经济:西部民族地区落实科学发展观的契入点

经济竞争的实质是特色经济和特色产业的竞争。特色经济具有优势性、效益性、连带性、可持续性、动态性等基本特征。大力发展特色经济,是西部民族地区落实科学发展观的契入点和必然选择。