Calibrating spatial models of trade

Empirical spatial models of trade that are based on a mathematical programming specification often exhibit a large discrepancy between the equilibrium solution and the observed demand, supply and levels of trade flows among countries. This discrepancy may be due to several causes. Assuming, however, that a trade model is not misspecified – in the sense that behavior of the economic agents involved in the specific commodity markets has been included in the study and that the relevant policy instruments have been properly taken into account – the cause of discrepancy may be traced either to imprecision of unit transaction costs or to imprecision in the measurement of the demand and supply functions' parameters, or both. Policy assessments based on this type of imprecise models are distorted. This paper presents a methodology for calibrating mathematical programming spatial trade models of increasing complexity, from the one-commodity case to a multi-commodity model with asymmetric slope matrices of demand and supply functions. The proposed calibration procedure identifies corrections of imperfectly measured parameters. The calibrated models generate solutions that exactly reproduce quantities produced and consumed in all countries, as well as trade flows among all pairs of countries, observed in a given base year. Such models may then serve as a springboard for assessing the impact of various policy changes on economic agents in the countries under study.     

Measuring populist discourse with semantic text analysis: an application on grassroots populist mobilization

Populism is a concept employed to qualify the political behavior of a large number of actors at a worldwide scale, with scientists classifying the latter into populists and non-populists according to dimensions such as ideology, strategy, discourse, economic policy, and even style. This article analyzes existing schools of thought on the nature of populism and argues that conceptualizing populism as a specific type of anti-elite discourse in the name of the People is both conceptually and methodologically the most coherent and useful way to understand the phenomenon. Additionally, it suggests discarding crude, dichotomous classification in favor of a gradated view of populist mobilization by means of quantifying populist discourse and observing its spatial and temporal variation. It adds value to current methods of measurement by demonstrating why and how clause-based semantic text analysis can provide optimal quantitative results while retaining qualitative elements for mixed-methods analysis. Aiming, moreover, at expanding the scope of populism studies by overcoming a narrow view that focuses exclusively at party system developments, it applies semantic text analysis to the study of grassroots mobilization during the Great Recession. Results point to the wide use of populist discourse on the part of movement activists seeking an inclusive language when framing disparate social grievances in a given constituency, a finding with important implications with regards to how populism can facilitate straddling the divide that purportedly distinguishes institutionalized party system behavior from the social movement milieu.     

Symmetric Positive Equilibrium Problem: A Framework for Rationalizing Economic Behavior with Limited Information

The PMP methodology is extended to deal with many economic units, self-selection arising from heterogeneous economic behavior, and multiple limiting inputs. The novel structure for the analysis of this type of problems acquires the name "symmetric positive equilibrium problem." This methodology is articulated in three phases that parallel those one of positive mathematical programming. The recovery of a cost function that calibrates the base-year decisions of each economic unit is realized within a maximum entropy framework. The methodology is illustrated by the analysis of a sample of Italian farms that operate under the complex policy mandates of the European Union.     

Deposit guarantee evaluation and incentives analysis in a mutual guarantee system

This paper analyzes how the deposit guarantee value affects the risk incentives in a mutual guarantee system. We liken the guarantee’s value to that of a European-style contingent claims portfolio. The main feature emerging from our model is that a mutual guarantee system would give banks an adverse incentive to increase riskiness. To mitigate this incentive, we introduce a regulatory provision modelled using a path-dependent contingent claim. By comparing the mutual guarantee system with a non-mutual one, we show that the former is less expensive, but implies higher adverse incentives for the banks, especially for undercapitalized institutions.     

Cost-effectiveness of currently recommended direct-acting antiviral treatments in patients infected with genotypes 1 or 4 hepatitis C virus in the US

Objective: This study compared the cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antiviral therapies currently recommended for treating genotypes (GT) 1 and 4 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients in the US.

Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis of treatments for CHC from a US payer’s perspective over a lifelong time horizon was performed. A Markov model based on the natural history of CHC was used for a population that included treatment-naïve and -experienced patients. Treatment alternatives considered for GT1 included ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir?+?dasabuvir?±?ribavirin (3D?±?R), sofosbuvir?+?ledipasvir (SOF/LDV), sofosbuvir?+?simeprevir (SOF?+?SMV), simeprevir?+?pegylated interferon/ribavirin (SMV?+?PR) and no treatment (NT). For GT4 treatments, ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir?+?ribavirin (2D?+?R), SOF/LDV and NT were compared. Transition probabilities, utilities and costs were obtained from published literature. Outcomes included rates of compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related death (LrD), total costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs and QALYs were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Results: In GT1 patients, 3D?±?R and SOF-containing regimens have similar long-term outcomes; 3D?±?R had the lowest lifetime risks of all liver disease outcomes: CC =?30.2%, DCC = 5.0?%, HCC = 6.8%, LT =?1.9% and LrD =?9.2%. In GT1 patients, 3D?±?R had the lowest cost and the highest QALYs. As a result, 3D?±?R dominated these treatment options. In GT4 patients, 2D?+?R had lower rates of liver morbidity and mortality, lower cost and more QALYs than SOF/LDV and NT.

Limitations: While the results are based on input values, which were obtained from a variety of heterogeneous sources—including clinical trials, the findings were robust across a plausible range of input values, as demonstrated in probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Among currently recommended treatments for GT1 and GT4 in the US, 3D?±?R (for GT1) and 2D?+?R (for GT4) have a favorable cost-effectiveness profile.     

Study of the major supply factors and business choices affecting the growth rate of wine tourism in Greece

Wine tourism is considered one of the alternative forms of tourism internationally. Wine tourism combines wine production with tourism activities, mainly in agricultural areas, as it embraces the tourism interest for wine production and the enjoyment of vineyard activities by the tourists. Greece, as a well-known tourist destination, is actually a new wine tourism area that has still a long way to go before claiming that it can render high-quality services in this very competitive sector. The objective of this paper is to examine and present the extent of wine tourism development in Greece, the characteristics as well as the main business choices related to wine tourism supply, aiming at highlighting the necessary key elements that can play a decisive role in its further growth. In terms of this paper, we attempt to examine the Greek wine producer's viewpoint of wine tourism by setting out data related to the development of the product, the satisfaction of businessmen involved, the means used to promote the product, the difficulties faced by and the expectations set by wine producers. In order to achieve the aforementioned goals, a research was conducted by means of a constructive questionnaire sent to all major Greek wine producers from April to June 2007. The participants in the wine tourism industry in the country were considered a major source of information.     

Comparative Statics of Money-goods Specifications of the Utility Function

The introduction of real-cash balances into the neoclassical model of the consumer wrecks havoc, in general, on the empirically observable refutable comparative statics properties of the model. We provide the most general solution of this problem to date by deriving a symmetric and negative semidefinite generalized Slutsky matrix that is empirically observable and which contains all other such comparative statics results as a special case. In addition, we clarify and correct two aspects of Samuelson and Sato's (1984) treatment of this problem. Received March 9, 2001; revised version received September 3, 2001     

A comparison between Asian and Australasia backpackers using cultural consensus analysis

This study tests the differences in the shared understanding of the backpacker cultural domain between two groups: backpackers from Australasia and backpackers from Asian countries. A total of 256 backpackers responded to a questionnaire administered in Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Krabi Province (Thailand). Cultural consensus analysis (CCA) guided the data analysis, to identify the shared values and the differences in the backpacker culture of the two groups. The findings revealed that while the two groups share some of the backpacker cultural values, some other values are distinctively different from one another. The study provides the first empirical evidence of the differences in backpacking culture between the two groups using CCA. Based on the study findings, we propose some marketing and managerial implications.