METROPOLITAN HOUSE PRICES IN SOUTH AFRICA: DO THEY CONVERGE?

The question this paper investigates is whether or not different metropolitan areas each constitute a separate housing market or whether or not there is a single South African housing market. Theory on the Law of One Price suggests that if products or geographic areas belong in the same market, their absolute prices must converge, so that their relative prices are stationary. By using cross-sectional time series data of five metropolitan areas, the paper tests for the Law of One Price by applying the Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test. The paper finds strong evidence of convergence in large middle-segment house prices and weaker support for convergence in medium middle-segment house prices. In addition, the paper finds no evidence for convergence in small middle-segment house prices. This suggests the existence of a national market for large and possibly middle-segment houses in metropolitan areas, but separate metropolitan markets for small middle-segment houses. In addition, the paper estimates the speed of convergence and finds that large middle-segment house prices converge within two to seven quarters, while the speed of convergence for medium middle-segment house prices in three of the five areas is five to eight quarters.     

国债规模的均衡数量及优化

笔者基于世代交叠模型,假定政府执行赤字预算体制,在市场结清的均衡状态下得到了确定国债规模与私人资本规模之比值的解析式。通过模拟发现税率、基本财政支出率、产出关于私人资本的弹性等是决定该比值大小的主要因素。     

我国炼油工业应实行改造与新建并举的方针

目前我国炼油工业的生产能力，特别是加工中东含硫油的能力严重不足，为适应国民经济发展的需要，扩大炼油能力十分必要，根据测算，2010年我国炼油工业的加工量应达到3亿吨，2020年达到4．5亿吨，若按开工率90％计，则2010年我国炼油能力应达到3．3亿吨，2020年达到5亿吨，因此，从现在开始的10年内，需新增炼油能力1亿吨左右，在下一个10年，即2010至2020年，还需新增能力1．5亿吨，根据我国国情，因地制宜，充分利用现有装置潜力通过技术改造来发展炼油工业是十分必要的，但是大型，先进，一体化是我国炼油工业今后发展的主要方向，兴建新厂可采用先进的工艺技术和新的管理机制，取得较高的经济效益，因此，我国炼油工业的发展实行技术改造与兴建新厂并举的“两条腿走路”的方针。     

Wage and Price Inflation in Poland in the Period of Transition: The Cointegration Analysis

The paper focuses on the long run relationships between wages, prices and labour productivity in the Polish economy by applying recent developments in the field of multivariate cointegration analysis. We followed modeling strategy which is suggested by Greenslade et al. (1999) and present all stages of the analysis which leads to the fully economically identified system of equations representing long run relationships. The investigation is based on the quarterly data from 1992.1 to 1999.2 which covers the period of transition of the Polish economy from the centrally planned system towards the market one. Basing on the empirical results we can argue that wages (costs) were one of the main forces driving inflation in Poland during that period. Also labor productivity proved to be stimulated by the increase of the real wages. On the other hand the hypothesis concerning the relationship between wages and unemployment was rejected by the data.     

反腐败之"高薪养廉"对策辨误

“高薪养廉”是很多人极力推崇的对策之一，无论是从理论上还是实践上看，“高薪养廉”都不适合中国国情，不能从根本上解决腐败问题。腐败问题的解决是一项系统工程。     

全面整合旅游资源,推进广州旅游业的深度发展

<正> 广州旅游业发展到今天,已经完成了“基本原始积累” 的数量型发展阶段,实现了旅游产业化的飞跃。而在新的形势下,如何提升旅游业的综合竞争力,促进其向效益型、质量型的产业转变,引发新的飞跃,出路在于:全面整合旅游资源,推进旅游业的深度发展。