The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

Firm turnover,restructuring and labour productivity in transition: the case of Poland

Many studies have found strong and positive relationship between per capita income and health care expenditure. These studies usually adopt the assumptions that (1) the relationships among the variables are constant; and/or (2) the supply-side market for health care could be treated by using standard demand functions models. To take into account of the supply side of health care, we use the demand and supply approach with the cointegration model to re-examine this issue. By using Taiwan health care expenditure data, our results show that the real income elasticity is smaller than unity and the health care expenditures are primarily for ‘curing’ rather than ‘caring’.     

提高客户满意度是否会增加企业盈利

大多数研究者和企业管理人员都认为客户满意度和企业期望的经营结果成正相关。研究发现,客户满意对购买意愿具有可测量的影响,而且对于客户保持和企业的经营业绩也有同样的影响。同时,有关研究也认为,客户满意度与花费份额(SOW)、公司的营业收入也有正相关的关系。在一些不同行     

Analysis of franchisors' expansion strategies and competition

Franchising provides a channel for small businesses to grow successfully into nationwide or even worldwide chains. Franchising is considered to be common among chain stores, of which the convenience store is a typical example. This study aims to examine the expansion strategy of each individual convenience store franchisor and the competition to expand among the franchisors. Taiwan is considered to have the highest convenience store density in the world. This study performs empirical analyses of four major convenience store franchisors in Taiwan, namely, 7-Eleven, Family Mart, Hi-Life, and OK. The evidence shows that the franchisors tend to be slow to expand when facing a highly dense competitive environment. There exists a strong first-mover advantage in convenience store franchising. The first mover (7-Eleven) has played a dominating role throughout the years. As a result, the franchisors' outlet shares have remained relatively stable.     

Factors affecting the success of women entrepreneurs

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relation that exists between the skills possessed by women entrepreneurs and their motivations, barriers and performance. Thus, on the theoretical framework we review literature some aspects that are related to the skills required of a business owner: level of education, previous occupational experience, and prior business expertise and management skills. The analysis undertaken shows that the lack of education and managerial skills of women business owners are two of the most important variables when it comes to understanding the motivations and the difficulties they have to face.     

Sustainable Ecotourism in Amazonia: Evaluation of Six Sites in Southeastern Peru

It is widely assumed that ecotourism offers sustainable development opportunities in under‐developed countries, but little is known about the variables contributing to differential sustainability of multiple ecotourism ventures within a geographic region. This investigation compared differences among rainforest ecotourism sites in Tambopata, Amazonian Peru. These rainforest lodges act as stewards of the surrounding habitat. Different histories and philosophies regarding tourism resulted in varied levels of economic, social and ecological sustainability. This study quantitatively examines the differential sustainability of multiple ecotourism sites in a small geographic region. Tourism in Tambopata has a potential for sustainability of local communities and natural resources. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Getting too personal: Reactance to highly personalized email solicitations

Research on the effects of personalized messages on consumers’ behavioral responses has yielded mixed findings. We explore how e-mail personalization influences click-through intentions. Our results suggest that consumers experience personalization reactance in response to highly personalized messages when the fit between the offer in the message and consumers’ personal characteristics is not explicitly justified by firms. Consequently, consumers are less willing to respond favorably to the offer. Results of two studies suggest that this effect primarily emerges for consumers who perceive the utility of the service to be relatively low. For those consumers with higher perceived utility, justification of personalization is less important because highly personalized messages are less likely to elicit reactance.     

Five Seconds to the Ad: How Program-Induced Mood Affects Ad Countdown Effects

The study examines how program-induced mood and a five-second countdown warning affect reception of midroll video commercials. Building on mood regulation theory, findings from three studies suggest that program-induced moods and five-second countdowns systematically influence advertising effectiveness. When the main program is tragic (comedic) and when a countdown precedes (does not precede) the midroll ad, viewers have more positive attitudes toward the ad and purchase intentions. The findings are replicated in realistic (Study 1) and controlled (Studies 2A and 2B) settings.     

Do VC-backed IPOs manage tone?

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how and why VC-backed firms manage their tone during initial public offerings (IPO) and seasoned equity offerings (SEO). Analysis conducted using the Management Discussion and Analysis section of the prospectuses from 1997 to 2011 show that VC-funded firms are less optimistic in tone. VC-financed firms do so to reduce litigation risks and protect their reputational capital; the effect of conservative tone management is more pronounced when they hire large auditors, receive more analyst coverage, operate in high-tech sectors and in industries with high litigation risk. Further, tone is not related to the conveying of private information as IPO firms that received VC funding experience larger surprise unexpected returns and perform better than non-VC-backed offers in the long run.